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Who doesn’t love those first two days of the Round of 64? On Thursday and Friday, March 20 and 21, we’ll have non-stop action – 16 games each day, starting at 12:15 PM ET and running until the final tip-off at a scheduled 10:05 PM ET. Fans everywhere will be wrapping up their workweek, hopeful for their team, their bracket and the excitement of watching games with family and friends.
Whether you’re looking to bet on March Madness, win your bracket pool, closely follow every matchup, or just learn more about this year’s projected field, this article will break down five teams you need to watch.
But this isn’t just a list of the top five ranked teams, five mid-major Cinderella stories or five dark horses. After briefing you on the top-tier championship contenders, I’ll highlight three legitimate Final Four threats that might surprise you, then move on to a dangerous team in the 6-10 seed range before finishing with a Cinderella pick.
One quick note: Nate Oats’ Alabama squad could also belong in the following category since they are in line for a No. 1 seed and made a Final Four run last year. However, I have concerns about their defense and consistency from beyond the arc, given how often they rely on three-point shooting.
This year, the top tier of college basketball belongs to just two teams:
According to KenPom, these two teams have the highest net rating since Duke’s 2000-01 national championship team, surpassing even the dominant 2015 Kentucky squad. Duke, in particular, holds the highest KenPom rating since the 1999-2000 season.
Much like the 2020-21 season, when Baylor and Gonzaga dominated from start to finish and ultimately met in the title game, Auburn and Duke could be on a collision course for the championship.
But you don’t need me to tell you about Auburn and Duke – they’re already getting plenty of coverage on ESPN, college basketball podcasts and national articles. Instead, let’s focus on elite teams outside the No. 1 seed line that can make deep tournament runs.
Right behind Auburn and Duke, but in a tier below, are:
Florida, in particular, has the best chance to displace Duke or Auburn, as they are the only other team ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. With great depth, length and elite guard play, they are a real threat.
Tennessee and Houston, on the other hand, are defensive juggernauts, but I question whether they have the elite shot-creators needed to win the biggest games.
Now, let’s get to the real fun.
The Big Ten hasn’t won a national championship since Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team in 2000. While Izzo’s current squad is ranked in the top 10, they struggle mightily from three (ranking 348th nationally), and their lack of consistent scoring options and star power (outside the freshman Jase Richardson) makes them vulnerable.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin quietly ranks as the highest-rated Big Ten team in predictive metrics, thanks to a top-10 offense that thrives on three-point shooting and free throws. The Badgers have embraced an analytics-driven approach, eliminating mid-range shots for efficient looks from deep and at the rim.
Key Players:
Wisconsin also boasts a veteran core with senior leaders, two stretch 7-footers (Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter), and the best team free-throw percentage in NCAA history at 83.3%. If they avoid teams with elite rim protectors / low-block scorers or elite defensive perimeter pressure, they could make a deep run.
Rick Pitino has transformed St. John’s into a defensive powerhouse. They play at the 17th-fastest offensive pace, apply relentless pressure and force long possessions from opponents. Their offense is inconsistent, ranking outside the top 70 in efficiency, but they dominate the offensive glass (11th in rebounding rate) and thrive on iso scoring.
Key Players:
With Pitino at the helm and elite toughness on defense, St. John’s is built for tournament success. Given the Big East’s recent dominance (UConn’s back-to-back titles), don’t be surprised if they make a deep run.
Under brilliant head coach Grant McCasland, Texas Tech has shifted from its recent defense-first identity to an offensive juggernaut (10th in offensive efficiency). They take a high volume of threes (shooting 37.6% as a team) and execute at a methodical pace.
Key Players:
Texas Tech might not win the Big 12, but their balance of shooting, rebounding and depth makes them a legitimate Final Four threat.
They are currently projected as a 9-seed, but it’s Mr. Sweet 16 – the man who has made 25 straight NCAA Tournaments – Mark Few and his Gonzaga Bulldogs. As usual, Gonzaga has fallen out of the national spotlight since WCC conference play began, but even more so this year. The Zags are just 22-8 and did not win the WCC regular season title – Saint Mary’s did. However, this team still has the talent and experience to make a deep run in March.
Gonzaga is led by point guard Ryan Nembhard, who averages just under 10 assists per game to lead the nation. Inside, Graham Ike is a force, averaging 17.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. While Gonzaga is typically hyped up – sometimes overhyped – as a top-four seed, this group has become a true sleeper.
Khalif Battle is a volatile and streaky scorer, but when he’s hot, he’s extremely dangerous. Nolan Hickman is a reliable contributor, averaging 11 points per game while shooting nearly 44% from deep. Brandon Gregg and Braden Huff add length and stretch shooting, while Michael Ajayi provides rebounding and defensive versatility off the bench. Additionally, Dusty Stromer can get hot from three and provide an offensive spark.
The biggest concerns for Gonzaga are a lack of elite athleticism and a true go-to shot-creator in crunch time. However, as dangerous as a 9-seed gets, this team has the coaching pedigree, experience and program history to make a run. After all, Gonzaga still ranks No. 9 overall in KenPom.
The Zags play at a high tempo offensively and force opponents into long possessions. They shoot a quality 35% from deep, an elite 58% from two and an impressive 80.6% from the free-throw line. They don’t rely much on three-point attempts or getting to the free-throw line, but they dominate the paint and score efficiently inside the arc.
Defensively, Gonzaga is solid, particularly on the defensive glass, while excelling at keeping opponents out of the paint and off the free-throw line. They do allow a fair number of three-point attempts but defend the perimeter well.
Although they lack many marquee wins, Gonzaga’s elite two-point scoring efficiency, combined with its March experience, makes them a nightmare matchup for any high seed in the second round. If you’re a No. 1 seed, you do not want to see Gonzaga early.
UC San Diego is rapidly gaining traction as a legitimate Cinderella threat, now ranked No. 35 in KenPom. After finishing second in the Big West last season, the Tritons built their identity around a disciplined, pick-and-roll-heavy offensive system, emphasizing ball security and high-efficiency shot selection.
They don’t crash the offensive glass much but are highly effective on their first shot attempts. UCSD ranks 12th in three-point attempts, converting at an impressive 36.2% clip – an essential trait for a Cinderella team. The Tritons largely avoid inefficient mid-range shots and instead focus on high-quality looks at the rim and free-throw opportunities.
On defense, UCSD thrives on aggression, forcing a high rate of turnovers. Their pressure-heavy scheme can be vulnerable when opponents breakthrough, leading to a high volume of opponent three-point attempts. However, scoring inside against them is a major challenge.
Hayden Gray and Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones provide steady playmaking, while sharpshooter Tyler McGhie, alongside Gray, gives UCSD elite perimeter shooting. Tait-Jones leads the nation in free-throw rate, attempting 8.7 per game and converting 77%. McGhie and Gray each shoot above 40% from three. The Tritons’ five-out offensive approach creates matchup nightmares, especially with versatile big man Nordin Kapic stretching the floor.
Teams with steady guard play that can handle pressure and hit threes efficiently – like Clemson – will present challenges for UCSD. However, for many teams, the Tritons will be a serious handful.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.