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The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros meet tonight at Minute Maid Park in a nationally televised FOX matchup, with the first pitch set for 7:15 PM ET. This interleague showdown features two first-place teams that took drastically different paths to their identical 48-33 records entering the series.
While the Cubs and Astros are separated by league, geography and roster construction, their destinies became intertwined last December in one of the biggest trades of the offseason. The Astros sent perennial All-Star Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for slugger Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith and pitcher Hayden Wesneski. With both teams surging in their respective divisions, the pieces from that trade are shaping this season’s playoff picture and tonight’s featured matchup.
The Cubs have built their success on balance. Offensively, they have 437 runs through 81 games (2nd-most in the National League) and own a league-best +100 run differential. Their ability to get on base and slug against right-handed pitching has been key. They rank fourth in MLB in OPS vs. right-handers (.773) and own the best road OPS in baseball at .803.
June has been a bit of a mixed bag for Chicago. They’re just 12-11 this month but showed signs of life recently with back-to-back wins over the Cardinals to salvage a four-game series split in St. Louis. Those victories came in characteristically resilient fashion and may have helped reset the tone heading into a challenging road set in Houston.
Individually, Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as one of the breakout stars of 2025. A defensive wizard in center field, PCA has blossomed at the plate, slashing .299 with a .940 OPS against righties. He’s delivered 21 home runs, 61 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, good for a 4.5 WAR, which is third-best in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña.
The Astros’ 48-33 mark has some smoke and mirrors. They’ve gone an impressive 17-6 in June, including a recent sweep of the Phillies, but many of those wins have come by the slimmest of margins. Four of their last five wins were decided by a single run, and they scored more than 4 runs just once in their previous seven games.
Still, Houston has been elite at home, boasting a 30-13 record at Minute Maid Park and a 17-7 mark in one-run games. Despite scoring nearly 100 fewer runs than the Cubs (338 vs. 437), their +50 run differential and pitching consistency have kept them atop the AL West.
The December trade has also paid dividends for Houston. Isaac Paredes has been a power presence in the middle of the lineup, tallying 16 homers and 46 RBIs with a .820 OPS. Rookie third baseman Cam Smith has stepped up in a big way, slashing .271 with 28 RBIs and delivering his best month yet in June (.291 average, .764 OPS). Shortstop Jeremy Peña, meanwhile, has quietly become one of the most valuable players in baseball with elite defense, a .324 average and a .871 OPS.
Tonight’s matchup features two right-handed starters who have been vulnerable: veteran Colin Rea for the Cubs and rookie Ryan Gusto for the Astros.
Rea enters with a 4.42 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 73.1 innings. He’s held his own but has had trouble keeping the ball in the park and doesn’t overpower hitters. Houston’s righty-heavy lineup hasn’t been explosive of late, but they boast the ninth-best home OPS in MLB (.751) and could take advantage if Rea struggles with command.
Gusto, meanwhile, has struggled even more in his rookie campaign, pitching to a 4.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. His issues are particularly pronounced at home (5.03 ERA in eight starts), as he’s been roughed up by left-handed hitters, allowing a .308 batting average and .947 OPS. That’s a major concern against a Cubs lineup that features lefty power from Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ and Michael Busch.
This is where the matchup tilts in Chicago’s favor. The Cubs are red-hot against righties and excel in night games (27-16). They’re also trending toward some positive regression after a tough stretch in mid-June. If they can get to Gusto early and force the Astros to use their bullpen by the middle innings, this could shape up to be a high-scoring affair in favor of the visiting Cubs.
In a prime matchup against a struggling right-hander, Pete Crow-Armstrong is poised to shine. PCA has crushed right-handed pitching all season, and he’s been elite under the lights (.277 average, .897 OPS in night games). His speed, power and bat-to-ball skills make him a constant threat to impact the game in multiple ways.
Gusto’s inability to get lefties out plays right into PCA’s wheelhouse, and the Cubs’ overall offensive depth should give him plenty of chances to hit with runners on base. Whether it’s a leadoff double, a stolen base or a game-breaking RBI knock, look for Crow-Armstrong to fill the box score in front of a national audience.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.