Loading...
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers will square off for the fifth time this season and the second of a three-game set at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. The first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 PM ET, airing nationally on TBS.
Just as they met in the 2024 NLCS, this matchup offers a potential 2025 NL playoffs preview, and we can expect another high-intensity showdown under the lights in L.A.
The Mets entered the series at 37-22, tied for the best record in the National League with the Cubs. That success is fueled by elite-run prevention. New York leads all of baseball in the fewest runs allowed and ranks second in bullpen ERA at 2.84.
However, the team has shown some significant home-road splits. The Mets boast MLB’s best home record at 24-7, but they’re just 13-15 on the road, and before sweeping the Rockies over the weekend, they had been 10-15 away from Citi Field. Their offense also takes a step back at night (730 OPS) and on the road (715 OPS) compared to more potent numbers at home.
Despite those challenges, the Mets have won five of their last six games, capitalizing on series against the struggling White Sox and Rockies. In the previous meeting, New York took two of three at home against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are fresh off a statement series against the Yankees, winning two of three and exploding for 18 runs in Saturday’s blowout. L.A. now leads MLB in OPS (.817), home runs and batting average. They’re even more dangerous at home (MLB-best .887 OPS at Dodger Stadium) and versus right-handed pitching (.827 OPS).
The Dodgers also lead all of baseball in bullpen innings pitched (251). While their 4.02 bullpen ERA ranks just 17th, they managed to weather the storm despite 15 pitchers on the injured list, including Shohei Ohtani’s pitching arm. The relief corps has leaned heavily on left-handers lately, and Mookie Betts may return tonight after a toe fracture, adding even more firepower to this loaded lineup.
Though Clayton Kershaw is no longer in his prime, the three-time Cy Young winner remains as crafty and cerebral as ever. The 37-year-old has made just three appearances this year, including two short starts in which he’s posted a 4.91 ERA across 11 innings. That includes two innings against the Mets on May 23 before a rain delay ended his night prematurely. Even in diminished form, Kershaw has a sparkling track record against this Mets roster: 12-for-80 (.150) with 26 strikeouts.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features two arms with opposite reputations against their opponents. Kershaw has historically dominated the Mets, while Tylor Megill has struggled against the Dodgers’ core. Megill has surrendered a .302 batting average and .800 OPS across 63 at-bats to the current L.A. lineup. He carries a solid 3.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 72 strikeouts in 53.2 innings, but his command has been an issue, as he’s walked 27 batters and tends to struggle against teams with strong plate discipline. Megill has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but he’s coming off a rough May (5.96 ERA) and hasn’t fared well on the road (4.71 ERA) or at night (4.26 ERA).
Unfortunately for Megill, the Dodgers rank fourth in MLB in the lowest chase rate, and their most dangerous hitters have thrived against his pitch mix. He leans on a four-seam fastball, slider, sinker and changeup, three of which Max Muncy, in particular, has hit hard. Muncy is 4-for-5 in his career against Megill with a double, a home run, three walks and 0 strikeouts.
Muncy broke out in a big way over the weekend, raising his OPS from .678 to .749 in just two games against the Yankees. He blasted three home runs and drove in eight runs, reaching the 200-homer milestone. With a .893 OPS against right-handed pitching this year and a .916 OPS at home, Muncy is red-hot and seeing the ball well, and he’ll be licking his chops against a fastball-heavy pitcher like Megill.
Expect the Dodgers to come out strong early, using their elite bats to jump on Megill before the Mets’ bullpen can take over. New York’s pitching depth could keep things close late, but the edge goes to Los Angeles, especially if Muncy and company continue their tear at the plate.
Muncy has excellent career numbers against Megill and is coming off a monster weekend. Whether it’s via a home run or by getting on base and letting those behind him bring him around, Muncy is in a great position to score in tonight’s matchup.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.