MLB Picks: Mets @ Phillies on ESPN – Sun, 6/22

Tonight is the final game of this NL East divisional series between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. For the rubber match in this series, the Mets will send out the big left-hander David Peterson. He has a sparkling 2.60 ERA and a 5-2 record on the season. Opposing Peterson will be fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo, toeing the home rubber in tonight’s matchup.

With both teams vying for the top of the NL East, each head-to-head game is critically important, even in June. Let’s look into each team’s 2025 season thus far and make a pick for tonight’s Mets vs Phillies matchup on ESPN.

Mets Regular Season Recap

The Mets have been one of the best teams in Major League Baseball up until this last week, when they’ve taken a six-game skid to bring them even with the Phillies in the NL East standings heading into the start of the series on Friday. Perhaps this is the best time to get this series on the schedule as the Mets can reset themselves. 

New York swept the Phillies early on this season in a three-game set and nothing could stop the team that won the Juan Soto sweepstakes from being the premier team in New York. Now, the Mets are without Kodai Senga thanks to a strained hamstring and are sans Tylor Megill, who hit the injured list with a sprained elbow. The Mets are going the opposite direction from the Phillies, who were 8-2 in their last ten entering the start of this series.

Luckily, the Mets still have their quartet of bats, highlighted by Soto, who has turned into a monster so far in June. Soto was sporting a .745 OPS heading into an end-of-May series with the Rockies on May 28th, but since then, his OPS has climbed to .844 and he now has a .310/481/.621 triple slash with five home runs and 10 RBI this month. Along with stalwarts Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, this fearsome foursome is as dangerous as any middle of the lineup in baseball.

Phillies Regular Season Recap

While the Mets have hit a backslide in recent days, the Phillies are on fire with eight wins in their last 10 games, leading up to the start of this series. They’ve won the last three series with the Cubs, Blue Jays and Marlins and look to continue that hot run going at home against the Mets.

The Phillies’ pitching has been some of the best in baseball with a league-best 11.7 pitching WAR, a top-four placement in Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP), and the second-best mark in SIERA, which measures true pitching skill while removing defense and luck-based factors from the equation. Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been awesome this season with at least six wins each and all sporting an ERA under 3.00, but Luzardo, tonight’s starter, has been under the microscope lately for the Phillies.

Luzardo came out of April with a 1.44 ERA and a 2-0 record to turn in a 5.56 ERA in May and an 8.78 ERA so far in June. As a prized acquisition from division rival Miami, Luzardo has some pressure on him to get out of this funk.

Philadelphia won’t have Bryce Harper back for this series, but as long as they have table-setter Trea Turner, plus masher Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos, they’ll be in good shape in a true hitter’s park to keep up with the Mets’ bats in their lineup.

Mets vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball DFS Pick

For a DFS pick tonight, we’re looking for the Mets to get back to their winning ways against a pitcher who’s been struggling as of late. While Soto has been raking as of late for the Mets, we’re going to look to Nimmo in tonight’s game. Since June 2nd, Nimmo has hit safely in all but two games as the team’s two-hole hitter.

We’ll take Nimmo to set the table for Soto, Alonso and company tonight and at least get one hit against the Phillies.

Our Pick: Brandon Nimmo to Record 1+ Total Bases