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After splitting the regular season series 2-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets have delivered a Western Conference Semifinals showdown between the top two MVP candidates worthy of its billing. The series has been a back-and-forth battle featuring three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and rising superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA).
With Oklahoma City now holding a 3-2 series lead after a thrilling Game 5 comeback, the stage for a pivotal Game 6 in Denver is set – a win-or-go-home moment for the 2023 champions still playing that core four. Let’s break down what’s happened so far, how we got here, and what to expect next.
Game 1: Nuggets 121, Thunder 119
Denver shocked the top-seeded Thunder in Oklahoma City, overcoming a 20-point deficit to snatch the series opener. The Thunder, who played the fewest clutch-time games in the NBA this season, struggled to close against the battle-tested Nuggets. Jokic dominated, recording 42 points and 22 rebounds, while Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun were huge on the glass. SGA had a strong showing with 33 points, but a missed pair of free throws from Chet Holmgren in the final seconds and Jalen Williams’ off-night (5-for-20 shooting) proved costly.
Game 2: Thunder 149, Nuggets 106
OKC responded emphatically, putting on a pace, efficiency and ball movement clinic. The Thunder had 13 more assists, 12 fewer turnovers and dominated the paint and fast break. SGA was near-perfect, scoring 34 points on 11-for-13 shooting, while Holmgren, Jalen Williams and the bench contributed. Jokic fouled out, and the Nuggets looked disengaged after stealing Game 1.
Game 3: Nuggets 113, Thunder 104 (OT)
In Denver, the Nuggets weathered a Thunder comeback and outscored OKC 11-2 in overtime. Jokic, Gordon, Murray and MPJ all scored 20+. The Thunder crushed Denver on the glass but shot just 9-for-35 from three. SGA had his worst playoff performance, shooting 7-for-22. Jalen Williams dropped 32, but OKC’s bench failed to support.
Game 4: Thunder 92, Nuggets 87
In a slugfest, the Thunder edged out a grind-it-out win behind stingy defense. Both teams shot under 36% from the field and below 25% from three. SGA and Jokic were inefficient, but OKC’s bench stepped up again. Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins all hit timely shots, and the Thunder stole one on the road despite Jalen Williams’ struggles.
Game 5: Thunder 112, Nuggets 105
In arguably the best game of the series, Oklahoma City overcame a 12-point third-quarter deficit behind a fourth-quarter explosion led by Luguentz Dort’s three straight threes and clutch late-game plays from SGA and Jalen Williams. Jokic was sensational with 44 points and 15 boards, but Murray’s 10-for-27 shooting and Denver’s lack of supporting production hurt them. OKC shot 12-for-29 from three, controlled the pace late and got key contributions from Williams (18 points and 9 rebounds), Hartenstein (15 points and 7 rebounds), Chet Holmgren (14 points and 8 boards), and Caruso (13 points off the bench).
Heading back to altitude, the Thunder will face their biggest test yet. Can this young, deep group close out the best player in the world and the 2023 champions on the road? Or will the Nuggets’ playoff experience and home-court advantage push the series to a winner-take-all Game 7?
The case for Denver starts and ends with Nikola Jokic, who was breathtaking in Game 5. If not for his performance, the Nuggets would have been blown out. But he’ll need help, and a lot of it. Jamal Murray has his hands full with the best backcourt defense in the NBA – an array of guys that can take turns on him. Although he will need to stay confident and take a high volume of shots again (sometimes difficult shots), Murray needs to connect on a few more and have a signature clutch playoff performance.
Michael Porter Jr., dealing with a shoulder issue, has totaled just 5 points in the last two games. Russell Westbrook has cooled off drastically after a strong start to the series, and Christian Braun, a frequent energetic spark on both ends of the floor, was missing in action in Game 5.
Denver’s biggest issues, however, may be fatigue and lack of depth. The Nuggets went seven games against the Clippers in round one, while the Thunder had a week of rest after sweeping Memphis. The contrast in legs has started to show, especially late in games.
On the other hand, Oklahoma City continues to show why it posted a 68-14 record this season. SGA has been steady and elite, and his midrange mastery showed up again in the clutch during Game 5. Jalen Williams and Holmgren are starting to make big plays, while the Thunder’s bench, particularly Caruso, Wallace, and Wiggins, has delivered key contributions. The Thunder’s fast break, rebounding edge since Game 2 and stingy perimeter defense have all tilted the series in their favor.
But Game 6 in Denver won’t be easy. Outside of the blowout in Game 2, every game has been a war. The Thunder’s inexperience closing on the road showed in Games 3 and 4, and we could see a similar pattern in Game 6. Expect Jokic to dominate again, Murray to come out firing and Denver to play with desperation in front of a raucous home crowd.
If the Nuggets are going to win and force Game 7, they’ll need to hit the glass hard, especially Aaron Gordon, who has averaged 9.6 rebounds in this series. They’ll also need better floor spacing and shot-making from Gordon, MPJ, Westbrook and Braun.
Ultimately, while OKC has been the more complete team, the odds of Denver extending the series feel high. Expect another gritty, low-scoring battle with swings of momentum throughout.
Gordon posted 14+ rebounds in Games 1 and 4 and averages nearly 10 boards per game in this series. With Denver’s season on the line and the Thunder continuing to collapse the paint to limit Jokic’s playmaking, Gordon will be key on the glass. Look for him to be aggressive and physical in Game 6, especially early, as the Nuggets try to stay alive.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.