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The Western Conference Finals shift to the Target Center in Minneapolis for a pivotal Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. Tip-off is set for tonight at 8:30 PM ET on ABC, and after two statement wins from OKC at home, the pressure is now squarely on the Wolves to respond.
Can Anthony Edwards deliver a signature playoff moment in front of the home crowd? Or will newly-minted 2024-25 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the league’s most balanced young squad continue their march toward the NBA Finals?
Let’s dive into how we got here, and what to expect on Saturday night.
After a dominant Game 1 win, the Thunder backed it up with another impressive performance in Game 2, winning 118-103 and taking a 2-0 series lead. The story for Game 2 was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who looked every bit the MVP, scoring 38 points on 12-of-21 shooting and going 13-for-15 from the foul line. SGA carved up Minnesota’s defense with surgical mid-range shooting and constant rim pressure, pacing the Thunder during a 35–21 third-quarter blitz that broke the game open.
Once again, the Wolves kept things competitive in the first half. Anthony Edwards came out far more aggressive, taking five more shots by halftime than all of Game 1. Edwards finished with 32 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists. Minnesota also got improved contributions off the bench, with Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (17 points), and Naz Reid combining for 35 points. Jaden McDaniels chipped in 22 on an efficient 8-for-15 night.
But the Thunder’s team cohesion once again won out. Jalen Williams (26 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists) and Chet Holmgren (22 points) continued their strong two-way play, while Lu Dort (+29) led the team in plus-minus thanks to his tireless defense and rebounding. OKC’s formula held strong: elite ball movement (30 assists), low turnovers (8), points off turnovers forced (22) and overwhelming dominance scoring inside the arc (58 points in the paint).
Minnesota improved in key areas, particularly getting to the foul line (26 attempts) and scoring in the paint (44 points, more than double their Game 1 total), but poor 3-point shooting (11-for-38) and Julius Randle’s absence (2-for-11 in Game 2) haunted them.
Game 3 presents a must-win scenario for the Timberwolves as the series moves to Minneapolis. The home crowd and a more favorable whistle could give them a lift, but they’ll need more than energy.
The Wolves’ Path to Victory:
It starts with Edwards and Randle being in sync. In Game 1, Randle recorded 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting when Ant was just 5-of-13 with 18 points. In Game 2, Edwards went off, and Randle couldn’t make a bunny at the rim. In Game 3, Randle’s performance will be under the microscope.
Through five home playoff games, Ant is 18-for-38 from deep (47.4%) and has made five or more threes in three of them. Saturday nights have also been kind to him for some reason. He shot 43.8% from three on Saturdays during the regular season and has shot 9-for-23 from deep in two Saturday postseason games.
Minnesota needs him to carry the offensive load and take 25+ shots again. Additionally, whether it’s McDaniels playing lock-down defense and staying hot from outside, or the bench trio of DiVincenzo, Reid and Alexander-Walker continuing to bolster their impact, the Wolves must keep the floor spaced and punish the Thunder’s paint-packing scheme by finally knocking down open threes.
Thunder’s Game Plan:
OKC’s consistency on both ends has been the backbone of its playoff run. They lead the postseason in fewest turnovers committed and turnovers forced, and their ability to win the possession battle has powered their offense even when the three isn’t falling (9-for-33 from deep in Game 2).
They’ll look to continue feeding SGA in the mid-range and attacking off the dribble to create open looks. Holmgren’s rim protection and Jalen Williams’ versatility remain critical, while Dort will once again be tasked with hounding Edwards.
Even if the Thunder regress slightly from inside the arc, their ability to adapt and their willingness to share the ball give them a high floor.
Game 3 Prediction:
If SGA controls the tempo again and OKC wins the turnover and paint battles, they’ll be in a position to steal one on the road.
However, Minnesota’s desperation and home-court advantage should elevate their intensity, and Edwards is too good not to deliver a major Game 3 response. Expect the Wolves to shoot better from deep and ride a monster Ant performance to keep the series alive.
Edwards has hit that mark in 3 of 5 home playoff games, and after leading the NBA regular season in 3-point makes, he’s in a good position to rebound from 4-of-17 3-point shooting in OKC. With the Thunder daring Minnesota to win from outside, expect Ant to let it fly early and often in front of the home crowd.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.