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We have done comprehensive research to come up with a ranking of all 32 NFL teams based on how successful they have been at drafting first-round quarterbacks since 2002. Each team’s rank is justified by evaluating the careers of the QBs they picked in the first round (2002–present) with respect to longevity, accolades (Pro Bowls, All-Pros), Approximate Value, impact on team/league, Hall of Fame potential, busts, and the number of long-term starters drafted.
Only quarterbacks who found success with the team that drafted them are considered (QBs who succeeded elsewhere don’t count for the drafting team).
Scroll down to see the full list, or click on the name of your favorite team to find out where they rank:
Green Bay struck gold in 2005 by selecting Aaron Rodgers 24th overall. After a few years behind Brett Favre, Rodgers became the starter in 2008 and went on to have a Hall-of-Fame-caliber career. He led the Packers for 15 seasons, earning four MVP awards, a Super Bowl championship (SB XLV) with MVP honors, and 10 Pro Bowl selections. Rodgers set numerous franchise records and was a first-team All-Pro four times. His longevity (over a decade as a top-tier starter) and impact on the league (multiple MVPs) are unmatched.
Green Bay also drafted Jordan Love in 2020 as Rodgers’ heir; Love only became a starter in 2023, so his story is still unfolding. Even before Love’s evaluation, the Packers’ drafting of Rodgers alone (and seamlessly transitioning from one franchise legend to another) makes them the top team in first-round QB drafting success.
Rodgers’ achievements (four MVPs, Super Bowl title) and likely Hall of Fame induction exemplify drafting success at the highest level. Meanwhile Love is showing himself to be a more than capable replacement, and although he may never hit the heights of his predecessor in the role, he is looking like a very good franchise QB.
The Chiefs have only used a first-round pick on a quarterback once in this period – but that one pick was Patrick Mahomes. Drafted 10th overall in 2017, Mahomes became the starter in 2018 and immediately transformed the franchise. He won the 2018 NFL MVP in his first year as a starter and has already led Kansas City to multiple Super Bowl victories (after the 2019, 2022, and 2023 seasons). As of early 2025, Mahomes is a two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion, having been named Super Bowl MVP in all of the Chiefs’ recent title wins. He’s made the Pro Bowl every season as a starter and earned All-Pro honors twice.
Mahomes’ impact on the league is enormous – he’s widely considered the NFL’s premier quarterback of this era. His rapid ascent (including a 50-touchdown MVP season and multiple championships) and Hall of Fame trajectory are undeniable. Kansas City had a long first-round QB drought before Mahomes, but this pick was a grand slam.
With elite performance and long-term outlook (the Chiefs have hosted five straight AFC title games in the Mahomes era), Kansas City’s first-round QB drafting record is nearly flawless. One perfect pick can outweigh many, and Mahomes’ historic success lands the Chiefs near the top of this list.
The Steelers found their franchise quarterback in 2004, when they chose Ben Roethlisberger 11th overall. “Big Ben” became a starter as a rookie and enjoyed an 18-year career in Pittsburgh, providing extraordinary longevity and stability. He led the Steelers to three Super Bowl appearances, winning two Lombardi Trophies (XL and XLIII) as the starting QB. Roethlisberger was a six-time Pro Bowler and Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2004. By the time he retired after 2021, he ranked 5th in NFL history in passing yards and had amassed 64,088 yards and 418 TDs, becoming one of the all-time greatest Steelers’ players.
His long tenure and high Approximate Value (as the Steelers’ all-time passing leader) point to a hugely successful pick. Roethlisberger will receive serious Hall of Fame consideration. Pittsburgh finally drafted another first-round QB in 2022 with Kenny Pickett at #20 overall. Pickett had a modest rookie year, but it’s too early to judge him; regardless, the Steelers’ hit rate with Roethlisberger (a multi-ring, likely Hall of Fame quarterback) makes their first-round QB drafting a big success. It’s worth noting Pittsburgh had no busts in this period – they only picked two QBs in Round 1, one became a two-time champion and the other is a young starter. Few teams can claim a 100% success rate in picking franchise quarterbacks as Pittsburgh can with Big Ben.
The Chargers have enjoyed exceptional quarterback continuity thanks to two first-round hits. In 2004, the franchise acquired Philip Rivers in a draft-day trade (he was taken 4th overall by the Giants and immediately swapped for Eli Manning).
Rivers became the Chargers’ starter in 2006 and never missed a game through 2019, starting 224 consecutive regular-season games for the team. He led San Diego to multiple playoff berths, including an AFC Championship appearance in 2007, and was selected to eight Pro Bowls. Rivers left as the franchise leader in every major passing category (touchdowns, yards, completions, etc.) and is regarded as one of the best QBs of his era (albeit without a Super Bowl ring).
In 2020, the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert 6th overall, and he immediately picked up the mantle. Herbert won Offensive Rookie of the Year and has already made a Pro Bowl (2021) while shattering team records. He threw 31 TDs as a rookie and set the franchise single-season passing yardage record in 2021. The Chargers’ ability to draft back-to-back long-term starters is rare; as one analysis put it, Los Angeles “has had exceptional quarterback luck over the last two decades,” going from Rivers (a likely future Hall of Famer) to Herbert, who is one of the best current QBs in the league.
Neither Rivers nor Herbert has a championship (Rivers fell short; Herbert is still early in his career), which keeps the Chargers just a notch below the very top teams. But drafting two franchise quarterbacks in a row with no bust in between is a remarkable success that very few teams can match.
Baltimore’s first-round QB picks have yielded two big successes out of three attempts. Their early misfire was Kyle Boller (19th overall in 2003), who struggled as a starter and never lived up to expectations (he lasted only a few years in Baltimore).
However, the Ravens rebounded in 2008 by drafting Joe Flacco 18th overall. Flacco became a Week 1 starter as a rookie and led the Ravens to the playoffs six times in his 11 seasons with the team. Most importantly, he quarterbacked Baltimore to a Super Bowl title in the 2012 season. Flacco’s performance in that 2012 postseason was legendary – he threw 11 TDs and 0 INTs and was named Super Bowl XLVII MVP after the Ravens’ championship win. While he was never a Pro Bowler, Flacco was a steady, durable starter (including a streak of 163 consecutive starts) and ranks as Baltimore’s all-time passing leader.
In 2018, the Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson with the 32nd pick, which proved to be another home run. Jackson won the 2019 NFL MVP award in just his second season, becoming only the second unanimous MVP in league history. His dynamic dual-threat style took the league by storm – in 2019 he led the NFL in touchdown passes and broke the single-season QB rushing record. Jackson has made two Pro Bowls and restored the Ravens as a perennial contender. At only 28, he’s already a franchise cornerstone with Hall of Fame-level talent (now a two-time MVP as of 2023).
Overall impact: The Ravens got a Super Bowl championship (Flacco) and an MVP (Jackson) from their first-round QB picks. That outweighs the early bust (Boller) significantly. With two long-term starters drafted (each with at least one All-Pro caliber season) and a relatively low “bust rate,” Baltimore’s drafting record at QB is among the league’s best. Few teams have drafted multiple quarterbacks who delivered an MVP or Super Bowl MVP – Baltimore has done both.
(Note: Michael Vick was drafted in 2001, just outside our cutoff; thus the Falcons’ relevant first-round QB picks are Matt Ryan and Penix Jr.) In 2008, Atlanta selected Matt Ryan 3rd overall, and he became the face of the franchise for the next 14 seasons.
Ryan brought immediate stability to a team in chaos after Vick’s departure. He started from Week 1 of his rookie year (winning Offensive Rookie of the Year) and never missed a game due to injury until 2019. Ryan’s career in Atlanta was distinguished: he earned four Pro Bowl selections and won the 2016 NFL MVP award. In that 2016 season, he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and led the Falcons to a franchise-best 11–5 record and a berth in Super Bowl LI.
Though Atlanta fell just short in that Super Bowl (in an overtime heartbreaker), Ryan’s performance validated his selection as a true franchise quarterback. He holds virtually every Falcons passing record (franchise leader in yards, TDs, completions, etc.) and guided the team to six playoff appearances, including two NFC title games. Importantly, Atlanta had no first-round QB busts in this era – Ryan is the only such pick until 2024, and he delivered long-term longevity (200+ starts) and an MVP-level peak. His Hall of Fame case is debatable, but his Approximate Value for Atlanta is enormous.
The Falcons do have a recent first-round QB on the roster in the form of Michael Penix Jr, and we await to see how he develops although early signs are positive. Penix Jr saw limited action in the 2024/25 season (five games, 775 passing yards, 4 total TDs) but earned a pivotal Week 18 win with a standout performance, giving Atlanta confidence in him as the 2025 starter despite an “incomplete” rookie evaluation.
Ultimately, Atlanta’s first round pick of Ryan was as successful as a team can hope for: a decade-plus regular starter, an MVP season, and a Super Bowl run. That consistency and high performance along with the potential of Penix earn the Falcons a top-10 spot.
The Giants’ ranking is driven heavily by the success of Eli Manning. In 2004, New York acquired Manning (who was the No. 1 overall pick) in a draft-day trade, and he became the starting QB midway through his rookie season. Eli went on to start 210 consecutive games for the Giants from 2004–2017 (never missing a game to injury), giving the team tremendous longevity and stability at the position.
More importantly, Manning led the Giants to two Super Bowl championships (2007 and 2011 seasons), earning Super Bowl MVP honors in both victories. Those underdog title runs – which included defeating the 18-0 Patriots in SB XLII – are legendary, and Eli is one of only six players ever to win multiple Super Bowl MVPs. He made four Pro Bowls in his career and holds all of New York’s significant career passing records (57,023 yards and 366 TDs for the Giants). While Eli’s regular-season performance could be streaky, his big-game resume and durability give him a strong Hall of Fame argument.
In 2019, the Giants drafted Daniel Jones at No. 6 overall to succeed Manning. Jones has been the starter for four seasons now, showing some promise but more modest results. He does meet the “3+ years as a regular starter” threshold, having led New York to a playoff berth and victory in 2022. However, Jones has not reached a Pro Bowl level (he’s had up-and-down passing stats and struggled with consistency). For the Giants, bust rate isn’t a problem here – Jones hasn’t been a total bust (he earned a second contract), though he also hasn’t proven to be a star.
Overall, New York successfully drafted one long-term franchise icon in Eli and then an average starter in Jones. The two Lombardi Trophies Eli delivered carry enormous weight. Those championships and Manning’s durability/impact secure the Giants a high ranking, even if Daniel Jones’ tenure has been more average. Drafting a two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback in the first round is a clear mark of success.
The Bengals have twice used top-spot picks on quarterbacks in this span, and both times it significantly improved the franchise’s fortunes. In 2003, Cincinnati selected Carson Palmer #1 overall. Palmer became the full-time starter in 2004 and soon ended the Bengals’ long playoff drought – in 2005 he led Cincinnati to an 11-5 record and their first postseason appearance in 14 years. That year, Palmer threw 32 TD passes and earned a Pro Bowl nod, demonstrating the value of the pick.
A knee injury in that playoff game derailed that postseason run, but Palmer recovered and made another Pro Bowl in 2006. He was a quality starter for seven seasons with the Bengals, amassing over 22,000 passing yards for Cincinnati. While the team didn’t win a playoff game in his tenure (partly due to injuries and organizational struggles), Palmer’s Approximate Value was high – he stabilized a chronically weak team and was statistically prolific (two 4,000-yard seasons). After Palmer’s era, the Bengals hit rock bottom in 2019 (2-14), which set them up to draft Joe Burrow #1 in 2020.
Burrow has quickly become the game-changing franchise QB Cincinnati hoped for. Despite a knee injury as a rookie, Burrow returned in 2021 to lead the Bengals to Super Bowl LVI (their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988). In that 2021 season, he won Comeback Player of the Year and in 2022 made the Pro Bowl while leading the NFL in completion percentage. Burrow has already quarterbacked the team to back-to-back AFC Championship games, and he’s widely regarded as an elite quarterback. Under his leadership, the Bengals broke their 31-year playoff win drought and have become perennial contenders. Both Palmer and Burrow provided at least 3+ years of high-level starting play with the team that drafted them.
Cincinnati’s bust rate in first-round QBs is effectively zero in this period – they got two franchise-caliber QBs out of two attempts. The only missing piece is a Super Bowl trophy (Burrow fell just short in a 23–20 loss in SB LVI, and Palmer never made it that far). Still, drafting a Pro Bowl passer who ended a playoff drought (Palmer) and then a young superstar who’s already reached a Super Bowl (Burrow) is an excellent track record.
The Bengals are rewarded here for drafting multiple successful long-term starters and turning the team’s fortunes around each time.
Carolina’s major success in this timeframe is Cam Newton, whom they took #1 overall in 2011. Newton delivered on his immense potential by becoming the 2015 NFL MVP, the first MVP in Panthers history. In that MVP season, Cam led Carolina to a 15–1 record (best in franchise history) and a trip to Super Bowl 50. Although the Panthers fell short in the Super Bowl, Newton’s performance (35 passing TDs, 10 rushing TDs in 2015) earned him first-team All-Pro honors.
Over nine seasons in Carolina, Cam accumulated three Pro Bowl selections and became the franchise’s all-time leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns. He also revolutionized the QB position with his dual-threat ability (over 4,800 career rushing yards).
Newton’s impact on the team was enormous – he took a middling Panthers squad and made them a conference champion. He was also Rookie of the Year in 2011 and led the Panthers to four playoff berths. Injuries eventually slowed him after 2016, but by then his Approximate Value to Carolina was very high (he’s widely considered the best quarterback in Panthers history). After moving on from Newton, the Panthers invested the #1 overall pick in 2023 on Bryce Young. Young’s career is just beginning – his rookie season (2023) had typical growing pains, and it’s too early to evaluate his success.
For this ranking, the Panthers benefit from not having any first-round QB busts since 2002: Cam was a clear success, and Bryce’s story is incomplete. The bust rate is effectively 0% (Carolina didn’t draft any other first-round QBs in between). The only reason Carolina isn’t higher is the relatively short peak of Newton’s career in Carolina (he had about five high-quality seasons). Nonetheless, drafting an MVP-winning, Super Bowl-reaching quarterback is a huge win.
The Panthers “reaped the benefits” of years of building around Newton during that 2015 run. If Bryce Young develops into a long-term quality starter, Carolina’s ranking could rise further. As it stands, the overall impact and accolades from the Cam Newton pick firmly place the Panthers in the top ten of these rankings.
The Colts transitioned from the Peyton Manning era by drafting Andrew Luck #1 overall in 2012, and Luck proved to be an excellent pick (albeit for a shorter-than-expected time). Stepping in as a Day 1 starter, Luck immediately lived up to his billing – he led Indianapolis to 11–5 records and playoff berths in each of his first three seasons. In fact, Luck took a 2-14 team in 2011 to the playoffs in 2012, signaling a dramatic turnaround. He made four Pro Bowls in his career and led the Colts to the AFC Championship Game in the 2014 season.
Luck’s Approximate Value was very high; by the end of 2018, he had thrown for over 23,000 yards and 171 TDs in just six seasons. He was also the 2018 Comeback Player of the Year after returning from a shoulder injury and throwing 39 TD passes.
Under Luck, the Colts were annual contenders, reaching the playoffs four times. His sudden retirement in 2019 at age 29 (due to injuries) cut short a potential Hall of Fame trajectory, but he still provided Indianapolis with 86 games of quality QB play and is regarded as one of the best QBs of the 2010s. The Colts did not draft a first-round QB between Luck and 2023, instead using veterans post-Luck.
In 2023, they drafted Anthony Richardson at #4 overall. Richardson’s rookie year was unfortunately marred by injury (he showed flashes but played only a few games before a season-ending shoulder injury). It’s too early to judge Richardson, but he’s a high-upside player who, if he pans out, would further boost Indy’s QB drafting rep. Even if Richardson remains an unknown, the Luck pick alone was a success for the franchise: he checked all the boxes (Pro Bowls, playoff wins, high AV) except longevity.
Indianapolis gets credit for identifying and drafting a true franchise QB in Luck, even though external circumstances ended that era prematurely. With minimal bust impact (no other first-round QBs in that span except the very recent Richardson), the Colts’ first-round QB drafting record is strong.
Essentially, they seamlessly moved from one No. 1 pick franchise QB (Manning, 1998) to another (Luck, 2012). Luck’s tenure – four Pro Bowls and four playoff appearances – solidifies a top-10 ranking.
The Bills’ ranking is a tale of two eras: early misfires followed by a home run. In the 2000s, Buffalo desperately sought Jim Kelly’s successor and tried J.P. Losman with the 22nd pick in 2004. Losman started parts of three seasons but never took hold of the job – he went 10-23 as a starter and was out of Buffalo by 2008, making him a clear bust.
In 2013, the Bills swung again, selecting EJ Manuel 16th overall. Manuel similarly disappointed: he was the only QB taken in the first round that year and started just 14 games (6-8 record) before the Bills benched him. By 2015 he had lost the starting role, and he was off the team after four seasons. These misses contributed to Buffalo’s 17-year playoff drought. However, the Bills’ fortunes changed in 2018 when they drafted Josh Allen 7th overall.
After a raw first two seasons, Allen had a breakout year in 2020, leading Buffalo to its first division title and playoff win since 1995. That season, Allen set franchise records for passing yards and TDs and earned second-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors. He has since become one of the league’s elite quarterbacks: as of 2024, Allen is a three-time Pro Bowler and even the 2024 NFL MVP. Under Allen, the Bills have made the playoffs five straight years and reached the AFC Championship Game (2020 season). He’s also led the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio and passing yards per game in various seasons.
Crucially, Allen ended the Bills’ long run of QB futility – Buffalo now consistently contends, and he’s in the prime of a potentially Hall-worthy career. In terms of impact, Allen’s Approximate Value already rivals or exceeds any QB in Buffalo’s post-Kelly history. The Bills do have to wear the stain of two first-round busts (Losman and Manuel) which drags them slightly lower. Their bust rate (2 out of 3 picks) isn’t great. But the magnitude of Allen’s success – essentially finding a superstar – outweighs those misses.
Buffalo also deserves credit for drafting multiple starting QBs: even though Losman/Manuel didn’t last, Allen is a long-term starter and MVP-caliber player. On balance, the Bills end up just outside the top 10: the early mistakes keep them from ranking higher, but their eventual hit on Josh Allen has been franchise-transforming.
The Eagles have only one first-round quarterback in this period: Carson Wentz, taken #2 overall in 2016. (Philly’s long-time starter Donovan McNabb was a 1999 pick, and their current QB Jalen Hurts was a 2nd-rounder in 2020.) The Wentz pick yields a mixed evaluation: he achieved great heights early, but didn’t have sustained longevity with the team.
In 2017, his second season, Wentz was playing at an MVP level – he threw 33 TDs and led Philadelphia to an 11-2 record before tearing his ACL in December. He earned second-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowl nod that year. Notably, Wentz’s spectacular 2017 campaign put the Eagles in position to eventually win Super Bowl LII (Nick Foles took over in the playoffs, but Wentz was a big reason the team got the #1 seed).
So, impact on team: even though Wentz didn’t play in the Super Bowl, he was integral to that championship season. He returned from injury and had solid if not stellar seasons in 2018 and 2019, including leading the Eagles to the playoffs in 2019. However, by 2020 his performance declined sharply, and Philadelphia traded him away in 2021. Wentz’s Eagles tenure lasted five seasons (2016–2020), with three as the full-time starter. He accumulated 113 TD passes and helped the team to three playoff berths. While he did not become the decade-long fixture some expected, he was far from a bust: at his peak, he was a top-five QB who nearly won MVP and effectively contributed to a Super Bowl run.
Importantly, the Eagles did not waste any other first-round picks on QBs in this era – just the one on Wentz. And since moving on from Wentz, the team still flourished (with Hurts, a 2nd-rounder). Philadelphia’s “bust rate” in first-round QBs is 0% here; Wentz provided significant value. The relatively shorter stint and lack of long-term stability keep the Eagles from being higher. But drafting a quarterback who was an All-Pro caliber player and (indirectly) helped deliver a championship is a success.
Many first-round QBs never sniff an MVP vote or a Super Bowl ring – Wentz did both (even if Foles finished the job in the postseason). In sum, the Eagles got a few years of elite performance and a Lombardi Trophy out of their lone first-round QB pick, which is a pretty good return despite the unconventional path.
The Texans’ first-ever draft pick was quarterback David Carr at #1 overall in 2002, but that selection did not yield the hoped-for results. Carr was thrown into the fire with an expansion team and endured an NFL-record 76 sacks as a rookie. Despite starting for five seasons in Houston, Carr never had a winning season and struggled with consistency (59 TD, 65 INT in his Texans career). By 2006, his progress stagnated and the team moved on, making Carr largely a bust relative to being the top pick. Houston avoided drafting a QB in the first round for many years after Carr, until 2017 when they traded up to #12 for Deshaun Watson. Watson immediately provided a stark contrast – he flashed superstar ability from the start. In 2017 he threw 19 TDs in just 7 games before an ACL injury. Over the 2018–2020 seasons, Watson made three Pro Bowls (2018, 2019, 2020) and led the NFL in passing yards in 2020 with 4,823. He carried the Texans to back-to-back AFC South titles (2018, 2019) and won a playoff game in the 2019 season. Watson’s individual performance was elite – in 2020, despite Houston’s 4-12 record, he posted a league-best 112.4 passer rating and 33 TD to 7 INT. By then he had firmly established himself as one of the NFL’s top young quarterbacks (and the most talented QB in Texans history).
However, off-field issues and a trade request ended his Houston tenure abruptly; he sat out 2021 and was traded in 2022. Even so, Watson’s on-field impact for Houston was significant: he set the franchise’s single-season passing record and ranks second in Texans career passing yards despite only playing four seasons.
In 2023, the Texans again picked a QB in the first round – C.J. Stroud at #2 overall – and early returns are extremely promising. Stroud had a record-setting rookie season, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 TD against just 5 INT, and was named a Pro Bowl alternate. He broke the NFL rookie record for most consecutive pass attempts without an interception (192) and even led Houston into playoff contention (clinching a postseason berth by Week 18 in that scenario). Stroud’s poise and production earned him Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration and instantly solved the Texans’ QB woes.
With Stroud looking like a new franchise cornerstone, Houston appears to have hit on back-to-back first-round QB picks (Watson and Stroud). The bust of David Carr is the one big blemish, but it was also the organization’s very first pick under difficult circumstances. Since then, the Texans are 2-for-2 in drafting high-impact quarterbacks in Round 1. Watson’s multiple Pro Bowls and passing title combined with Stroud’s spectacular start suggest Houston has learned from early mistakes.
Given Watson’s short tenure, Houston doesn’t crack the top 10, but their recent QB drafting success is among the best in the league. The Texans have successfully drafted two different long-term starters (one already proven in Watson, one highly promising in Stroud) – a feat that many teams envy.
The Rams twice held the #1 overall pick in the 2010s and used both on quarterbacks. The results were a mix of moderate success and disappointment. In 2010 St. Louis selected Sam Bradford first overall. Bradford won Offensive Rookie of the Year and showed accuracy and poise, but his career was marred by injuries. He tore his ACL in 2013 (and again in 2014) and never quite became the franchise savior the Rams hoped. Bradford’s record as Rams starter was 18-30-1, and he never made a Pro Bowl. However, he wasn’t a total bust – he had solid passing stats when healthy and gave the team 49 starts over five seasons.
Ultimately, though, the longevity wasn’t there (St. Louis traded him after 2014). The bigger hit for the Rams came in 2016, when now in Los Angeles, they picked Jared Goff #1. After a rough rookie year, Goff blossomed under coach Sean McVay. In 2017 and 2018, Goff led the Rams to back-to-back division titles and earned Pro Bowl selections in both seasons. The 2018 Rams went 13-3, with Goff passing for 4,688 yards and 32 TD, and reached Super Bowl LIII. Though the Rams fell short in that Super Bowl (and Goff struggled in that game), it was still a successful run.
Goff was a durable starter for five seasons in L.A., making the playoffs three times. He threw 22,000+ yards and 118 TD for the Rams and steered a top-ranked offense in 2018. By 2020, his play had regressed somewhat, and the team traded him – but notably that trade netted the Rams Matthew Stafford, who immediately won them a Super Bowl (though that part doesn’t count as drafting success, it underscores that Goff maintained trade value).
So in terms of drafting, the Rams got: one QB (Bradford) who was a regular starter for a few years but never elevated the team and one QB (Goff) who achieved multiple Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl appearance as a productive long-term starter. Bust rate: 0%, since neither was a complete flame-out (Bradford had an underwhelming tenure but not in the JaMarcus Russell realm). However, neither pick became a Hall of Fame-level player either.
The impact on the team was decent – Goff especially helped turn the franchise into a winner again. The Rams successfully drafted a multi-year starter (Goff), which many teams fail to do, and Bradford, while a disappointment for a #1 pick, at least gave them a few serviceable seasons. Considering both the highs and lows, the Rams land around the middle of the pack in QB drafting success.
The Lions started this era with a miss at QB but later found a long-term franchise signal-caller. In 2002, Detroit picked Joey Harrington 3rd overall. Harrington was thrust into a struggling team and never gained footing – across four seasons as the Lions’ primary starter, he went 18-37 with a poor passer rating, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. By 2006 he was off the roster. Harrington is widely regarded as a bust, as he failed to revive the franchise and was benched multiple times due to ineffectiveness.
The Lions’ redemption came in 2009 when they drafted Matthew Stafford #1 overall. Stafford became the face of the franchise for 12 seasons, rewriting Detroit’s record books. He led the Lions to the playoffs three times (2011, 2014, 2016) – not a small feat given the team’s prior decades of futility. Individually, Stafford posted seven 4,000+ yard passing seasons in Detroit and made the Pro Bowl in 2014. In 2011, he passed for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. He ultimately accumulated 45,109 passing yards with the Lions, the most in team history.
While team success was limited (no playoff wins in Detroit), Stafford had a very high Approximate Value and was known for his toughness (he started 136 straight games at one point). He also engineered an NFL-record 8 fourth-quarter comebacks in 2016. The longevity and production of Stafford make that pick a clear success – he was a reliable franchise QB for over a decade. (His Super Bowl win came after a trade to the Rams, but that doesn’t factor into Detroit’s draft success, except to underline Stafford’s talent.)
With Stafford, Detroit drafted a long-term starter who reached elite statistical heights. Balancing the scales is the bust of Harrington earlier in the decade, which set the franchise back. Detroit’s first-round QB bust rate is 50% here – one bust (Harrington) and one hit (Stafford). Overall impact tilts positive thanks to Stafford’s tenure. He brought respectability and excitement to the Lions, even if ultimate team success was elusive. Because he didn’t lead deep playoff runs in Detroit and Harrington was a failure, the Lions end up around the middle in these rankings.
Still, drafting a 12-year starter who made multiple Pro Bowls and holds numerous franchise records is a solid outcome for Detroit’s first-round QB picks.
The Dolphins have used two mid-first-round picks on quarterbacks and have gotten mixed, but overall decent, results. In 2012, Miami drafted Ryan Tannehill 8th overall. Tannehill became the starter immediately and was under center for the Dolphins for six seasons (2012–2018). He was durable (started every game his first four years) and put up respectable numbers, including a 4,000-yard season in 2015.
Tannehill led Miami to a playoff berth in 2016 (their first since 2008), though an injury kept him out of that playoff game. However, he never emerged as a top-tier QB in Miami – he had no Pro Bowl selections with the Dolphins and posted a 42-46 record as a starter. Some of that was due to team issues, but by 2018 the Dolphins were ready to move on. Still, Tannehill was far from a bust; he met the “long-term starter” threshold (88 starts for Miami) and ranks near the top of many Dolphins career passing categories.
After a brief QB carousel, the Dolphins selected Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th pick in 2020. Tua’s tenure started unevenly (splitting time with veterans as a rookie, then dealing with injuries), but in 2022 he had a breakout. In 2022, Tua led the NFL in passer rating and was in the MVP conversation early, ultimately finishing with 3,548 yards, 25 TD, and a Pro Bowl alternate selection despite missing some games (including a playoff game) with concussions. He showed excellent accuracy and chemistry with Miami’s new star receivers, helping the Dolphins reach the playoffs in the 2022 season.
As of 2025, Tagovailoa is leading a high-powered offense and appears to be fulfilling his first-round promise when healthy – he even earned a Pro Bowl nod for the 2023 season. Miami thus has a young, ascending QB in Tua to pair with Tannehill’s prior steady service.
Bust rate: 0%, as neither Tannehill nor Tua is a bust. Neither, however, has yet reached the very elite echelon (Tannehill became a Pro Bowler later with Tennessee, but that’s outside Miami’s purview, and Tua has to prove durability). The Dolphins also went a long stretch without drafting a first-round QB (after Dan Marino retired, Miami didn’t pick one until Tannehill in 2012). Their overall drafting performance at QB has been average-to-good: they got a multi-year starter in Tannehill (who at least provided stability) and now have Tua, who has shown high impact when on the field (e.g. a 8-3 record in games he finished in 2022).
The lack of any All-Pro or deep playoff run keeps Miami in the mid-teens, but the fact that they haven’t whiffed entirely on a first-round QB is better than many teams behind them. Drafting a solid starter and then a potential franchise QB is a respectable track record.
No team has tried (and failed) as often to draft their franchise quarterback in the first round as Jacksonville. The Jaguars had a trio of disappointments in the 2000s/2010s before finally striking gold with Trevor Lawrence in 2021. In 2003, they picked Byron Leftwich 7th overall. Leftwich started for about three seasons and showed flashes with his strong arm, but inconsistency and injuries plagued him. He was replaced as the starter in 2007 and released – an underwhelming return on a top-10 pick.
In 2011, Jacksonville drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall, which proved to be a major bust. Gabbert struggled mightily (5-22 record, 66.4 passer rating in Jacksonville) and was benched in his third season. The Jaguars moved on quickly, and Gabbert is considered one of the bigger QB busts of the decade.
Despite those failures, Jacksonville went back to the well in 2014, selecting Blake Bortles 3rd overall. Bortles had a rocky start but by 2017 he helped the Jaguars reach the AFC Championship Game, largely on the strength of an elite defense. That season, Bortles played efficiently in the playoffs (upset Pittsburgh on the road) and nearly did enough to beat New England in the AFC title game. However, outside of that anomalous 2017 run, Bortles’ performance was subpar – he led the league in interceptions in 2015 and never made a Pro Bowl. He did set some franchise passing records (including a 35-TD season in 2015), but inconsistency led Jacksonville to release him after five seasons.
Overall, Leftwich, Gabbert, and Bortles all failed to become long-term answers (none earned a second contract as starter). The saving grace for Jacksonville is Trevor Lawrence. Drafted #1 overall in 2021 amidst enormous expectations, Lawrence endured a rough rookie year under a dysfunctional coaching situation. But in 2022, under new coaching, he showed why he was so highly touted: Lawrence passed for 4,113 yards, led the Jaguars to a division title and a playoff victory (orchestrating a 27-point comeback win in the Wild Card round), and made the Pro Bowl.
At only 24, Lawrence appears to be the franchise QB Jacksonville has sought for decades, demonstrating poise and high-end talent. By 2023, he had the Jaguars in back-to-back playoff contention and was regarded as a top-10 NFL QB. Lawrence’s emergence significantly boosts the Jaguars’ grade – he’s on track to fulfill his draft status.
When weighing this history, the bust rate was high (3 out of 4 picks didn’t meet expectations), but the most recent pick (Lawrence) is a big hit. Teams behind Jacksonville often have no hits at all, whereas Jacksonville now has a young star at the game’s most important position. The sheer number of failed first-round QBs keeps the Jaguars from ranking higher. However, drafting Lawrence has finally paid off the Jaguars’ persistence, as he has Hall of Fame potential if his trajectory continues.
In summation, Jacksonville’s first-round QB drafting journey has been mostly rocky, but the arrival of Lawrence (a Pro Bowler who broke the franchise’s playoff-win drought) nudges them above the teams that have never managed to draft a top quarterback.
Washington’s first-round quarterback selections have featured brief moments of hope ultimately undone by inconsistency, injuries, or off-field issues, although in Jayden Daniels they just may have found their man.
In 2005, Washington traded back into the first round to draft Jason Campbell at #25. Campbell was a steady but unspectacular player; he became the starter in 2006 and held that role through 2009. In that time, he went 20-32 as a starter and never led Washington to the playoffs. Campbell had the physical tools and did improve over time (he posted a respectable 86.4 passer rating in 2009), but constant coaching changes and a conservative offense limited his growth. By 2010, Washington moved on from him. Campbell wasn’t a disaster – he met the “3+ year starter” criterion – but he also never became more than an average QB and did not justify a first-round pick in terms of franchise impact.
In 2012, Washington mortgaged the farm to draft Robert Griffin III with the 2nd overall pick. RGIII’s rookie season was electrifying: he passed for 3,200 yards, ran for 815 yards, accounted for 27 total TDs, and led Washington to an NFC East title. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl.
Griffin’s dual-threat play and deep-ball accuracy took the league by storm. However, a knee injury in the playoffs at the end of that year marked the beginning of the end. He rushed back for 2013 and struggled. Conflicts with coaches and further injuries ensued.
By 2015, RGIII was benched and then released. His trajectory is one of meteoric rise and fall – a shining success that flamed out by year three. Overall, RGIII did deliver an incredible (if brief) impact: he brought Washington its first division title since 1999 and gave the franchise a superstar aura for a short time. But his lack of longevity (only one full good season) makes the pick bittersweet.
In 2019, Washington drafted Dwayne Haskins 15th overall. Unfortunately, Haskins never found footing in Washington. He went 3-10 as a starter over two seasons (2019–2020), struggled with turnovers and work habits, and was released before the end of his second year. Off-field maturity issues were cited, and his tragic passing in 2022 closed the book on what was a failed pick for Washington.
However, the recent acquisition of Jayden Daniels offers a ray of light. A dynamic dual-threat who threw for 3,568 yards with 25 TDs and added 891 rushing yards and 6 TDs, igniting Washington to a 12-5 record and a playoff berth in an Offensive Rookie of the Year-caliber season.
In summary: Washington has a very high first-round QB bust rate, with the early form of Daniels offering hope for the future. Campbell was a middling outcome, RGIII was a sensational but short-lived success, and Haskins was a bust.
Daniels has the potential to be a franchise quarterback of the future, and looks like he may buck the trend. They did get a division title and a memorable season thanks to Griffin, which is more than many teams below them can claim from their picks. However, none of these QBs gave Washington sustained success or stability at the position.
The constant turbulence at QB contributed to Washington’s lack of playoff wins in this era. RGIII at least achieved major accolades (ROY, Pro Bowl) and Campbell provided a few years of starting, but Daniels is the main reason that Washington have earned a mid-table spot.
The Buccaneers’ two first-round quarterback ventures yielded similar outcomes: flashes of ability, a few years as the starter, but ultimately disappointment in achieving long-term success. In 2009, Tampa took Josh Freeman with the 17th pick. Freeman showed promise – in 2010, at just 22 years old, he threw 25 touchdowns vs. 6 interceptions and led the Bucs to a 10-6 record (just missing the playoffs). That performance made it seem like Tampa had found their franchise QB.
However, Freeman regressed after 2010; his consistency wavered and clashes with coaches emerged. By 2013, only four years into his career, the Buccaneers released Freeman after a messy benching situation. His final record in Tampa was 24-35, and he never became the star his early success foreshadowed. Still, Freeman wasn’t an immediate bust – he did have a couple of solid seasons, including setting a then-franchise record for TD passes in 2012.
In 2015, the Bucs picked Jameis Winston #1 overall, hoping for a true franchise leader. Winston’s tenure was tumultuous. On one hand, he was productive: he threw for over 4,000 yards in multiple seasons and remains Tampa Bay’s all-time passing yards leader (19,737 yards) and touchdown passes leader (121 TD) after five seasons. He also made the Pro Bowl as a rookie (as an alternate).
On the other hand, turnovers were a major issue – Winston infamously threw 30 interceptions in 2019, becoming the first QB to have a 30 TD/30 INT season. The Buccaneers never made the playoffs with Winston, posting just one winning record (9-7 in 2016). His high-risk style culminated in back-to-back losing seasons (2018–19), and the Bucs let him walk in free agency. Winston’s time in Tampa can be described as statistically prolific but ultimately underachieving relative to being a top overall pick.
Bust rate: Neither Freeman nor Winston was a pure bust (both started for multiple years and put up numbers), but neither secured a second contract or achieved sustained success. The Bucs did draft two multi-year starters, which counts for something, but those starters delivered zero playoff appearances combined. The overall impact on the team was mediocre – Tampa Bay remained a sub-.500 team throughout those eras. (It’s ironic that the Bucs’ Super Bowl success came immediately after Winston, with Tom Brady who was not drafted by them.)
Because Tampa did at least get some serviceable play and a full rookie-contract cycle out of their picks, they rank ahead of teams whose first-round QBs flamed out almost immediately. But the lack of any Pro Bowl seasons (aside from Winston’s rookie-alternate) or playoff achievements by those draftees caps their ranking. In short, the Bucs got league-average quarterbacking at best from their first-round investments, which lands them in the lower-middle tier here.
The Bears have long struggled to find a franchise quarterback, and their first-round QB selections reflect that frustration. In 2003, Chicago selected Rex Grossman 22nd overall. Grossman’s tenure was injury-plagued and inconsistent, but he did have one shining stretch: in the 2006 season, he stayed healthy and, despite erratic play, helped Chicago reach Super Bowl XLI (the Bears relied on a dominant defense and special teams, with Grossman starting all 16 games). Grossman’s performance that year was very up-and-down (he infamously had multiple games with sub-10 passer ratings), and in the Super Bowl he struggled in a loss. After 2006, he lost the starting job and never regained form, leaving the Bears after 2008. Grossman did meet the “3-year starter” threshold only barely (he started the equivalent of about two full seasons spread over 5 years). While he wasn’t a total bust – he owns a Super Bowl start – he wasn’t a success either, with a career Bears record of 19-12 but a poor TD-INT ratio.
Fast forward to 2017: The Bears traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky #2 overall (ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson), which in hindsight looms large. Trubisky had moments of competence; in 2018, under a new coach, he went 11-3 as a starter, threw 24 TD, and made the Pro Bowl as an alternate, leading Chicago to a division title. However, that proved to be his peak. Trubisky regressed in 2019, and by 2020 he was in and out of the lineup. Over four seasons, he never developed into the polished passer Chicago hoped for, finishing with 64 TD vs 37 INT. The Bears let him leave in free agency, essentially admitting the pick did not yield a franchise QB.
Trubisky’s tenure is not as bad as some busts (he did get Chicago to the playoffs in 2018 and 2020, albeit the latter as a backup-turned-starter), but given his high draft slot and the stars drafted after him, it’s viewed as a failure.
In 2021, Chicago again moved up in the draft for Justin Fields at #11. Fields started from Day 1 of his rookie year and showed exceptional rushing ability – in 2022, he ran for 1,143 yards (second-most by a QB in NFL history). However, his passing production and win-loss record have left much to be desired (the Bears were 5-20 in his first 25 starts). Drafting Caleb Williams in 2024 led to Fields heading out the door, as Williams set Bears rookie passing records with 351 completions for 3,541 yards and 20 TDs. In 2024 he started all 17 games and showing promise despite a 5-12 season and some growing pains on a struggling team.
Summing up the Bears’ situation: bust/underperformance rate is high. None of the four first-round QBs became a long-term, high-quality starter for Chicago, although of course the jury is still out on Williams. Trubisky and Grossman had brief success but were inconsistent; Fields departed and Williams is a work in progress. Chicago did at least reach a Super Bowl with Grossman and a Pro Bowl season with Trubisky, which prevents them from ranking at the very bottom.
Yet the Bears remain one of the few teams in this era without a single 4,000-yard passer or an established franchise QB drafted in the first round. The lack of a true hit at the game’s key position keeps Chicago in the bottom third of these rankings, with the caveat that Williams may turn around their fortunes.
First-Round QBs since 2002: Christian Ponder (2011), Teddy Bridgewater (2014).
Minnesota had two first-round QB selections in the 2010s, and neither managed to lock down the Vikings’ quarterback job long-term (though one was derailed by sheer bad luck). In 2011, the Vikings reached for Christian Ponder with the #12 pick. Ponder had a few moments – in 2012, he started all 16 games and helped Minnesota make the playoffs (riding Adrian Peterson’s MVP season).
However, Ponder’s own play was middling (he averaged under 175 passing yards per game in 2012). Once Peterson’s heroics subsided, Ponder struggled mightily; by 2013 he was benched after a string of poor performances. He finished his Vikings career with a 14-21-1 record and more interceptions than touchdowns. Ponder is generally viewed as a bust, as he never developed the downfield passing game expected and was out of Minnesota after four seasons.
In 2014, the Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater 32nd overall. Bridgewater showed steady improvement and was poised to be the franchise QB. In 2015, he went 11-5 as the starter, earned a Pro Bowl selection, and led the Vikings to an NFC North title at just 23 years old. While his stats were modest (14 TD, 3,200 yards in 2015), he was accurate and poised. Tragically, Bridgewater suffered a catastrophic knee injury in August 2016 that essentially ended his run in Minnesota. He missed the entire 2016 season and most of 2017. By the time he recovered, the Vikings had moved on.
Thus, Bridgewater’s Vikings tenure, through no fault of his own, was cut short after two years as a starter. In those two years, though, he demonstrated enough to be considered a semi-successful pick (he did make a Pro Bowl and win a division, which many first-round QBs never do). The Vikings haven’t drafted a first-round QB since, turning to veterans like Kirk Cousins.
Overall, the Vikings’ first-round QB drafting results are underwhelming. Ponder was clearly a miss, and Bridgewater, while promising, gave them only a brief payoff (with an unfortunate ending). They did manage to draft a quarterback who made a Pro Bowl (Bridgewater) which some teams behind them didn’t achieve, and they got a couple of playoff appearances between the two picks. But neither became the long-term solution. Minnesota’s bust rate (at least 50%, arguably one full bust and one incomplete) and lack of a true franchise QB from these picks keep them in the lower part of the rankings.
Essentially, the Vikings got a few decent years but nothing sustained: Ponder couldn’t solidify the job, and Bridgewater’s career with them was sadly cut short just as he was ascending.
The 49ers’ two first-round QB picks in this era had almost opposite trajectories: Alex Smith overcame a rough start to become a solid starter (though his prime came just as he was replaced), whereas Trey Lance barely saw the field before the team moved on. In 2005, San Francisco chose Alex Smith #1 overall. Smith’s early years were turbulent: he had a new offensive coordinator almost every season and struggled mightily (1 TD to 11 INT as a rookie). By 2007, many considered him a bust, and he missed all of 2008 with injury.
However, Smith eventually found stability under coach Jim Harbaugh in 2011. That year, he led the 49ers to a 13-3 record and the NFC Championship Game, managing the offense effectively (17 TD, 5 INT). Smith’s resilience paid off – he became a competent, steady QB.
In 2012 he was playing the best football of his career (104.1 passer rating) when a concussion caused him to lose the starting job to Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers made the Super Bowl that year with Kaepernick, and Smith was traded in the offseason. Smith’s San Francisco tenure is hard to grade: for six years he looked like a bust, then for two years he was a quality starter who took the team deep in playoffs. He didn’t meet expectations of a #1 pick overall, but he wasn’t a failure by the end. He gave the 49ers seven seasons, 80 starts, and helped rejuvenate the franchise post-2010.
Fast forward to 2021: the 49ers traded a haul of picks to draft Trey Lance #3 overall. Unfortunately, Lance’s tenure in San Francisco was brief and disappointing. He sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo for most of 2021, started two games, and then was named the 2022 starter – only to break his ankle in Week 2 of 2022. By 2023, Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy had surpassed him, and the 49ers traded Lance after only 4 career starts with the team. Lance’s 49ers stat line (5 TD, 3 INT in limited action) and lack of playing time make him effectively a bust in terms of the draft investment – San Francisco never got a return on their huge trade-up.
Thus, the 49ers’ record: one long but up-and-down pick (Smith) and one outright bust (Lance). They also notably passed on Aaron Rodgers in 2005 to take Smith, which looms as a “what if.” The bright side is that Smith eventually became a respectable starter with playoff success for the team (he even made a Pro Bowl later in Kansas City). The 49ers did get some value from that pick, even if it took years.
The downside is Lance’s miss, though mitigated by the team finding a gem in Purdy (a separate matter). Considering both picks, San Francisco’s first-round QB drafting has been below average. They did manage to draft a quarterback (Smith) who gave them multiple good seasons and an NFC title game appearance, which is more success than many teams can claim from a first-round QB. But Lance’s failure drags them down.
With a 50% bust rate and no sustained elite QB play from their first-rounders, the 49ers sit in the low-20s in these rankings.
The Cardinals went through a series of first-round quarterbacks in the past 15+ years, hitting some lows before finding a moderate success in Kyler Murray. In 2006, Arizona picked Matt Leinart 10th overall. Leinart was a celebrated college QB (Heisman winner), but in the NFL he never panned out. He was beaten out by veteran Kurt Warner and, even when given opportunities, showed inconsistent arm strength and preparation. Leinart started only 17 games in four seasons for Arizona, throwing more interceptions (20) than touchdowns (14). By 2010, the team released him. He’s widely considered a bust, especially as the Cardinals had drafted him to be their long-term answer.
Despite Leinart’s flop, Arizona tried again with Josh Rosen at #10 in 2018. Rosen’s tenure went even worse: he went 3-10 as a rookie starter on a bad Cardinals team, completing under 55% of his passes with 11 TD and 14 INT. After that single season, Arizona’s management saw enough and decided to draft another QB (Kyler Murray) #1 overall in 2019. Rosen was traded away after just one year, making him a rare one-and-done first-round QB – a definite bust for the Cardinals.
The saving grace for Arizona is Kyler Murray. Chosen first overall in 2019, Murray won Offensive Rookie of the Year and injected life into the franchise. A dynamic dual-threat, Murray made the Pro Bowl in 2020 and 2021 and led the Cardinals to a playoff berth in the 2021 season. In his first three seasons, Murray threw for over 11,000 yards, ran for over 1,700, and accounted for 70 passing TDs – solid production that showed why Arizona gambled on him so soon after Rosen. The 2021 Cardinals started 7-0 and Murray was in MVP conversations until an injury slowed him in the second half.
By 2022, he signed a massive contract extension, reflecting the team’s commitment to him. However, injuries (an ACL tear in late 2022) and some inconsistency have tempered enthusiasm. Still, Murray is clearly the best QB the Cardinals have drafted in the first round since maybe Jake Plummer (1997, Round 2). He fulfilled the “franchise QB” role for a few years, even if questions remain about his ceiling and leadership.
For these rankings, Arizona’s heavy bust rate (Leinart and Rosen both failing badly) weighs them down significantly. Murray’s presence prevents them from being at the very bottom – he at least has achieved multiple Pro Bowls and got the team to the playoffs. But the Cardinals’ overall track record is rough: three top-10 QB picks, two major busts, and one decent success (and even Murray hasn’t yet won a playoff game, and his long-term status is uncertain post-injury).
Arizona has shown the ability to identify talent in Murray, but their earlier failures and lack of sustained success at the position keep them in the 20s here.
The Broncos’ attempts at drafting quarterbacks in the first round have largely fallen flat. In 2006, Denver took Jay Cutler 11th overall. Cutler had a strong arm and made the Pro Bowl in 2008 with the Broncos, throwing for over 4,500 yards that year. He appeared to be Denver’s franchise QB, but a coaching change led to a fallout – Cutler was traded to Chicago after just three seasons in Denver. During his Broncos tenure, he posted solid stats (54 TD, 37 INT) and showed flashes, but his record was 17-20 as a starter with no playoff appearances. The fact that Denver traded him in his prime (for multiple high picks) indicates he wasn’t fully what they hoped, though he certainly wasn’t a bust for them. Essentially, Cutler was a moderate success talent-wise (evidenced by his Pro Bowl and the first-round picks Denver got in return when trading him) but not a long-term Bronco.
In 2010, Denver made a surprise first-round pick of Tim Tebow at #25. Tebow was a polarizing prospect with unconventional mechanics. With the Broncos, he produced one magical run in 2011: after taking over a 1-4 team, Tebow went 7-4 as a starter, often winning in late-game drama, and led Denver to an unlikely division title. He even won a playoff game in overtime (throwing an 80-yard TD in the Wild Card round). That season captivated fans and “Tebowmania” ran wild. However, his limitations as a passer (46.5% completion in 2011) were glaring, and Denver signed Peyton Manning in 2012, ending Tebow’s run. Tebow was traded after just two seasons. While he did bring the Broncos a playoff victory, Tebow’s stint can’t be considered a full success – he wasn’t a sustainable starter. He’s a unique case: not a total bust (because of that playoff success and short-term impact), but not a hit either in terms of conventional QB development.
In 2016, Denver tried again post-Manning by drafting Paxton Lynch #26. Lynch was a classic bust: he started only 4 games in two seasons, looked unprepared, and couldn’t beat out late-round and journeyman QBs on the roster. The Broncos cut ties after 2017. Lynch’s failure left Denver scrambling at QB for years.
Denver’s first-round QB picks have not yielded a true franchise quarterback during this era. Cutler was talented but short-lived in Denver, Tebow was exciting but brief and limited, and Lynch was a flop. The bust rate is high (Lynch for sure; Tebow in the sense of not providing multi-year starting value). The Broncos mitigated these issues by finding veterans (Manning, etc.) to win a Super Bowl, but strictly from a drafting perspective, their record is poor. They did manage a division title and playoff win via a first-round QB (Tebow), something some teams below them haven’t, and Cutler did reach a Pro Bowl with the team.
Those fleeting positives put Denver above the absolute bottom, but the lack of consistency and the outright bust of Lynch keep them firmly in the bottom quartile.
The Titans’ trio of first-round quarterbacks all showed flashes, but none delivered the long-term solution the franchise sought after Steve McNair. In 2006, Tennessee drafted Vince Young #3 overall. Young’s career started with promise – he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, made the Pro Bowl, and led the Titans to a playoff berth in 2007. Known for his clutch play, Young had a 30-17 record as a starter in Tennessee. However, he was often erratic (career passer rating of 75.4 with the Titans) and had off-field/coachability issues. His relationship with coach Jeff Fisher deteriorated. By 2010, despite a 5-2 record as starter, he was released after clashes with the coaching staff.
Vince Young’s case is polarizing: on one hand, he did achieve some success (ROY award, two Pro Bowl selections including as an alternate, and he quarterbacked a 13-3 team in 2008 until injury). On the other, he never developed into a consistent passer and flamed out by his fifth year. He’s not a total bust – he had a winning record and some accolades – but also not the steady franchise QB hoped for.
In 2011, Tennessee picked Jake Locker 8th overall. Locker struggled with injuries and accuracy from the start. He showed toughness and athleticism but could never stay on the field or win consistently. In four seasons, he started only 23 games and retired after 2014 due to injury concerns and performance (he completed just 57.5% of his passes in his career). Locker was clearly a bust, as he never put together even one full quality season.
In 2015, the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota #2 overall. Mariota started with a bang (four TD passes in his NFL debut) and had some solid seasons. In 2016, he threw 26 TDs and helped Tennessee to 9 wins, and in 2017 he led the Titans to a playoff win (including the famous “Mariota to Mariota” touchdown catch on a batted ball). But Mariota plateaued and struggled with injuries and inconsistency (never surpassing 3,500 passing yards in a season). By 2019, the Titans benched him for Ryan Tannehill. Mariota’s overall record with Tennessee was 29-32, and he never made a Pro Bowl. He was a decent starter for about four years but ultimately did not fulfill the expectations of a #2 pick.
Summing up: the Titans’ first-round QB bust/underachievement rate is effectively 3 for 3. Each of these quarterbacks had some positive moments – Young had early accolades, Mariota had a playoff win – but none secured the job long-term or performed at a high level consistently. Tennessee ended up moving on from all of them without a second contract.
The lack of a true hit is why they rank low. The reason they aren’t dead last is that, unlike some teams below, they did get a few years of starting and even a couple playoff appearances out of these picks. For instance, Young and Mariota at least delivered playoff berths (and Mariota a playoff victory). But overall, the Titans’ first-round QB drafting has been costly and disappointing, with each pick failing to become the franchise quarterback for the long haul.
New England famously enjoyed two decades of elite quarterback play with Tom Brady (a 6th-round pick in 2000), which meant they rarely invested high draft capital in QBs. In fact, the Patriots did not select any first-round quarterback from 1993 (Drew Bledsoe) until 2021, when they picked Mac Jones 15th overall. Then in 2024 they took Drake Maye in position 3 in the draft.
As a rookie in 2021, Mac Jones performed well. He won the starting job in training camp and proceeded to throw 22 touchdowns, leading all rookies, and guided the Patriots to a 10-7 record and a playoff berth. He was named to the Pro Bowl as an alternate and looked the part of a promising young quarterback. However, his second season (2022) was a step back – the Patriots offense struggled, Jones’ play regressed (throwing just 14 TD against 11 INT), and he had visible frustrations with the coaching situation.
By year three (2023), Jones’ future in New England was murky: he was briefly benched multiple times amid continued offensive woes, and the Patriots had one of their worst seasons in decades. Through his first three seasons, Jones showed accuracy and intelligence at times, but also limited playmaking and occasional shaky decision-making.
Drake Maye threw for 2,276 yards and 15 TDs in 11 starts (4-13 team record) after a delayed debut, flashing a strong arm and mobility (421 rush yards, 2 TD) but unable to elevate an overmatched Patriots roster in his rookie campaign. Jones was at least a serviceable starter (he meets the “3-year starter” criterion and earned a Pro Bowl alternate nod). On the other hand, he hasn’t shown star qualities and eventually moved on to Jacksonville. Meanwhile Maye still has to prove himself in the position.
The reason New England isn’t at the absolute bottom is because Jones did provide a playoff season and league-average QB play as a rookie, which some teams’ picks never did. Additionally, Maye still has some potential, and it must be considered that he played for a struggling team in his rookie year. Given that the team’s need at QB was only post-Brady, they haven’t had the repeated failures of others.
In the end, New England’s ranking here is low because they haven’t (yet) drafted a first-round QB who became a high-level success. If Drake Maye can become a long-term quality starter, the perception would improve. But for now, the Patriots’ impact from first-round QB drafting is minimal, especially compared to the dynastic success they achieved with a late-round QB (which, while amazing, is outside the scope of this list).
The Cowboys have not selected a quarterback in the first round since 1989 (when they took Troy Aikman #1 overall). From 2002 onward, Dallas has chosen to find quarterbacks through other means – and to their credit, they found success with undrafted Tony Romo and 4th-round pick Dak Prescott.
Because this piece specifically focuses on first-round drafting success, the Cowboys’ lack of any first-round QB picks means there’s no drafting success to evaluate. In one sense, Dallas avoided busts by not picking a QB high; in another sense, they get no credit for drafting a great QB in Round 1 because they haven’t tried.
The reason Dallas isn’t dead last is that their strategy (investing first-rounders in other positions and acquiring QBs in later rounds) yielded a long period of strong QB play (Romo was a four-time Pro Bowler, Prescott a multiple Pro Bowler). But again, since neither was a first-round pick by Dallas, those successes don’t count for this ranking. Essentially, the Cowboys are placed above a few teams that did draft first-round QBs and got mostly busts in return.
Dallas at least didn’t waste a first-round pick on the position during this time. Their bust rate in first-round QBs is technically 0% (because there were none), but their number of starting QBs drafted in the first round is also 0. In terms of the criteria: career longevity, Pro Bowls, impact, etc., Dallas has nothing from a first-round pick.
The Cowboys’ quarterback room was well-handled through other means, so they never felt compelled to reach for a QB in Round 1. While that was smart team-building, it leaves them with no first-round QB drafting resume to boast of. Therefore, Dallas slots in near the bottom, not as a punishment, but because by the question’s terms they have no positive drafting outcome at QB to show since 2002. (Their not picking a bust saves them from the very last spot reserved for teams that tried and failed repeatedly.)
Much like Dallas, the Saints did not draft any quarterbacks in the first round during this period – but for a specific reason: they haven’t really needed to. From 2006 through 2020, New Orleans was led by Drew Brees (acquired as a free agent in 2006), who delivered a Super Bowl and Hall of Fame-caliber play. Thus, the Saints invested their high picks in supporting pieces for Brees rather than a QB successor. Only after Brees’ retirement did quarterback become a concern, and even then New Orleans did not use a first-rounder on the position (they opted for veterans and a mid-round project). The last first-round QB the Saints selected was actually Archie Manning in 1971, well outside our range.
The absence of any first-round QB selections means the Saints have no drafted QB successes to evaluate since 2002 – but also no busts. New Orleans’ quarterback success in this era came from undrafted or late-round players (Brees and others like undrafted Tony Romo’s brief backup stint, and 7th-rounder Taysom Hill’s gadget role, etc.). For the purpose of these rankings, the Saints’ lack of attempts places them low. They didn’t draft a Pro Bowl or long-term starter at QB in the first round (because they didn’t draft one at all in Round 1).
The Saints are slightly above teams that drafted and failed with multiple QBs because at least New Orleans didn’t squander first-round capital on a bust. In fact, one could argue their strategy of not drafting a QB (due to having Brees) was wise. But since the question measures “success in drafting QBs in the first round,” the Saints simply have no output in that category in this era. They’ve essentially been non-participants. In a scoring sense, they get a null grade – better than a negative (busts) but providing no positive points either. Therefore, New Orleans sits near the bottom. They leveraged free agency to solve QB, not the draft, so their first-round QB drafting legacy since 2002 is blank.
Only the teams that actively tried and struck out multiple times rank lower than a team that didn’t play the game at all.
The Seahawks have not selected a quarterback in the first round during this period. Like the Saints, Seattle found its franchise quarterbacks via other avenues: Matt Hasselbeck was acquired by trade in 2001 and became a Pro Bowler, and Russell Wilson was a 3rd-round steal in 2012 who led the team to great success. Since 2002, Seattle never felt compelled to use a first-rounder on a QB. (Their highest QB pick was Wilson; the last first-round QB Seattle picked was Rick Mirer in 1993.)
As a result, the Seahawks have no first-round QB successes or failures to evaluate in the 2002–present window. The team won a Super Bowl and contended for others with Wilson at the helm (again, not a first-rounder). From a draft perspective focused on Round 1, Seattle simply isn’t on the board. This leaves them near the bottom of these rankings by default. They don’t rank dead last because not drafting a QB means they didn’t bust on one either – some teams below spent high picks and got burned. In Seattle’s case, they managed to have excellent QB play without spending a first-round pick, which is great for the franchise but not relevant to “first-round drafting success.”
Thus, Seattle’s scorecard here is blank. They did draft later-round QBs brilliantly (Wilson), but since late-round picks aren’t counted, Seattle’s first-round QB “success” is zero. It’s a testament to their front office that they never had to reach in Round 1 for a quarterback in this era, but it also gives us nothing positive to mark in this exercise. In summary, the Seahawks join the Saints and Cowboys as teams with no first-round QB picks in the period – they avoided mistakes but also have no drafted QB to credit. That puts Seattle just above the absolute bottom, which is occupied by teams that made multiple costly QB busts.
Few teams have a more infamous recent history of quarterback misfires than the Jets. New York has used three first-round picks on QBs since 2002, all in the top 5 selections, and none has delivered sustained success with the team. In 2009, the Jets traded up to draft Mark Sanchez at #5 overall. Sanchez’s tenure had an initial veneer of success: he helped the Jets reach back-to-back AFC Championship Games in his first two seasons (2009 & 2010), largely by complementing a strong defense and run game. In those playoff runs, Sanchez actually played well (9 TD, 3 INT over 6 playoff games) . However, in regular seasons he was below-average, never posting a passer rating above 78. His turnover-prone play (he led the league in turnovers from 2009-2012 combined) eventually caught up once the roster talent waned.
By 2012, the Jets collapsed and the “butt fumble” debacle symbolized Sanchez’s downturn. He was benched and released after 2013. Sanchez did meet the “longevity” criteria (he was the starter for four years) and is one of the few Jets QBs to win multiple playoff games, but his individual performance was poor (55% career completion, more INTs than TDs). Overall, while not a total bust, Sanchez did not become the quality franchise QB hoped for.
In 2018, the Jets drafted Sam Darnold #3 overall. Darnold was viewed as a top prospect, but in New York he struggled with turnovers and never had a stable environment. Across three seasons, he went 13-25 as a starter, throwing 39 TD and 45 INT. The Jets never won more than 7 games in a season with Darnold. After the 2020 season (where he was statistically among the worst starters in the league), the Jets gave up on Darnold and traded him away. His failure to develop (whether due to his flaws or the Jets’ organizational issues) marks him as a bust for New York.
In 2021, the Jets tried again, selecting Zach Wilson #2 overall. Wilson’s tenure so far has been disastrous: he had the lowest passer rating in the NFL in his first two years and was benched multiple times in 2022 and 2023 for subpar performance. By Year 3, Wilson’s confidence looked shattered and the team’s offense was anemic with him at QB. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and completed under 55% of his passes in his Jets career. New York’s coaching staff and fans quickly lost faith, and while Wilson is still on the roster, the team’s pursuit of veterans (like Aaron Rodgers) indicates they are not counting on him. Barring a dramatic turnaround, Wilson appears to be another bust.
Thus, the Jets have a bust rate of at least 2 out of 3, arguably 3 if counting Sanchez as failing to meet expectations despite team playoff success. The Jets have cycled through these high picks without finding their franchise leader. The brief glimmers (two AFC title game appearances) were more team-driven than QB-driven, and none of these QBs ever made a Pro Bowl or lasted beyond their rookie contract in New York.
This persistent futility lands the Jets near the very bottom. They only avoid the absolute last spot because Sanchez did at least win some big games (something the Browns’ and Raiders’ picks never did). But considering the value of the picks used (all top-5 selections) and the lack of a true solution, the Jets’ first-round QB drafting has been among the league’s worst in the 21st century.
The Raiders have only one first-round quarterback selection to consider in this era, but it is infamously one of the worst draft picks in NFL history. In 2007, Oakland chose JaMarcus Russell #1 overall, and his flameout was as spectacular as it was swift. Russell held out before signing, showed up out of shape, and struggled mightily on the field. In three seasons with the Raiders, Russell went 7-18 as a starter, throwing just 18 touchdown passes versus 23 interceptions. Known for his big arm, he nonetheless completed only 52% of his passes.
Off the field, concerns about his work ethic and conditioning grew (reports of him being overweight and falling asleep in meetings became legend). By 2009, he had been benched for poor performance. The Raiders cut Russell in 2010, only three years into his career, while still owing him over $30 million guaranteed. He never played another NFL down. Russell is widely considered the biggest draft bust of the modern era. His failure set the franchise back years – Oakland cycled through journeymen until landing Derek Carr in 2014 (a successful second-rounder). Because the Raiders did not draft any other first-round QBs in this timeframe, Russell’s debacle is the sole entry. That’s enough to rank them near the bottom.
With a 100% bust rate on first-round QBs and the one being arguably the worst-case scenario, the Raiders’ drafting “success” at QB is effectively zero. They invested the top pick in the draft and got nothing but headaches. The only tiny silver lining: Oakland didn’t compound the error by repeatedly drafting more busts (they avoided first-round QBs thereafter, perhaps because of Russell’s scar). In these rankings, the Raiders are second to last because while their one attempt was historically bad, at least it was only one. Teams like the Jets and Browns tried multiple times and missed, arguably doing even more cumulative damage. But make no mistake: JaMarcus Russell’s selection stands as a cautionary tale. As one article put it, “he never panned out at the professional level” and earned “the label of the biggest bust in NFL history”. That quote encapsulates the Raiders’ first-round QB drafting legacy since 2002 – one huge swing, and one colossal miss.
The Browns sit at the bottom of this ranking due to an astonishing string of first-round quarterback failures during the 2000s and 2010s. Cleveland has been jokingly called a “quarterback factory of sadness” – they tried repeatedly in the first round and consistently got it wrong (until very recently, perhaps). Consider their four first-round QBs since 2002: All four were gone from the team by the end of their rookie contracts, and none made a Pro Bowl for the Browns.
In 2007, Cleveland selected Brady Quinn 22nd overall. Quinn, an Ohio native, was expected to be the franchise QB but never secured the starting job. Over three seasons, he started just 12 games (3-9 record) with 10 TD and 9 INT. The Browns traded him after 2009 – a clear bust. In 2012, the Browns (now desperate) took Brandon Weeden at #22 as a 28-year-old rookie. Weeden went 5-15 in two seasons, throwing 26 INT in 23 starts. He was often overwhelmed and is most remembered in Cleveland for getting trapped under a giant American flag during pregame warmups. He was released after year two, another bust.
In 2014, the Browns drafted the charismatic Johnny Manziel 22nd overall amid much fanfare (“Johnny Football”). It turned into a circus: Manziel’s off-field partying issues overshadowed his play. On the field, he looked unprepared – in two seasons, he made just 8 starts, went 2-6, and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (7 each). By 2016, his personal problems and lack of commitment led the Browns to cut him. Manziel is a notorious bust, one of the most polarizing in recent memory.
Finally, in 2018 the Browns had the #1 pick and chose Baker Mayfield. Baker initially appeared to buck the trend: he set an NFL rookie record with 27 TD passes and eventually (in 2020) led the Browns to their first playoff win since 1994, even beating rival Pittsburgh in the postseason. However, inconsistency marked his tenure. Mayfield regressed in 2019, rebounded in 2020, then struggled through injury in 2021. By 2022, Cleveland moved on from him as well. In four seasons, Mayfield’s Browns record was 29-30, and while he did break the franchise’s long playoff drought , the team decided his uneven play wasn’t franchise-quarterback caliber. They traded him in 2022. So even the most successful of these picks (Mayfield) delivered a very mixed bag and left on bad terms.
Bust rate: You could argue 3.5 out of 4. Quinn, Weeden, Manziel were definite failures . Mayfield at least provided some value (he did hit the “3-year starter” and playoff criteria), but given he was a #1 pick, the Browns expected a true long-term star, which he wasn’t.
The Browns essentially spent a first-round pick on a QB five times from 1999-2018 (including Tim Couch in 1999) and none became a stable franchise quarterback. This futility is unparalleled. Cleveland’s constant resets at QB contributed to them having the worst record in the NFL over much of this span. The first-round QB misses were central to that dysfunction. It’s telling that the Browns’ most successful quarterback of the era (aside from a brief Deshaun Watson trade acquisition) was second-rounder Brian Hoyer or undrafted Josh McCown for a stretch – highlighting how badly the first-rounders flopped.
While Mayfield’s short tenure keeps Cleveland from being a total zero, the sheer number of high-profile busts gives the Browns the worst ranking. As a Sporting News piece summed up: “plenty of opportunities to find The Guy, but [they] have come up empty at just about every turn,” whether it was “first-round picks Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden…or Baker Mayfield” No other team had as many first-round swings at QB in this period with so little to show for it, cementing Cleveland’s spot at 32.
The methodology employed by the Deep Research AI tool from ChatGPT to rank all 32 NFL teams based on their success in drafting first-round quarterbacks since 2002 involves the following steps:
This comprehensive approach ensures that the rankings accurately reflect each team’s proficiency in selecting and nurturing first-round quarterback talent.
Ross has been writing about sports for over a decade, spcecializing in the NFL, soccer and boxing. His written work has appeared on a number of online publications over that time.