FIFA Club World Cup Final Picks: Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea

The FIFA Club World Cup has reached its final two teams, and we have a European final on our hands as Paris Saint-Germain takes on Chelsea this Sunday at 3:00 PM ET. The game is on TBS/DAZN and will take place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Although the French side is the deserved favorite after winning the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League, this Chelsea squad is also coming off a European trophy when they beat Real Betis in the UEFA Conference League Final.

With more silverware on the line and an additional $40 million given to the winner, both teams have something to play for. I most recently nailed my Chelsea vs Benfica prediction in the Round of 16, so let’s finish the tournament with another winning pick!

Paris Saint-Germain FIFA Club World Cup Recap

PSG was the best team in Europe this year, and the FIFA Club World Cup has been no different. The Parisians began the tournament by beating Atletico Madrid 4-0, as the Spanish side managed just 1 shot on target. Then, the biggest surprise of the tournament occurred: Botafogo defeated PSG 1-0, putting the Parisians on the brink of elimination in the group stage. However, Luis Enrique’s side went on to beat the Seattle Sounders 2-0 in the final group-stage match, which secured them the top spot in Group B.

The French side destroyed Inter Miami 4-0 in the Round of 16 before defeating Bayern Munich 2-0 in the quarterfinals. Finally, they eliminated Real Madrid 4-0 in the semifinals, so they’ve outscored their opponents 16-1 at the FIFA CWC. Fabián Ruiz was the main man against Real Madrid with 2 goals, which made him the leading goalscorer for PSG at the tournament with 3. However, they’ve had a balanced attack, as Achraf Hakimi, João Neves and Ousmane Dembélé have 2 goals each, and 6 other players have found the back of the net at least once. Dembélé will be the player to watch for Chelsea, as the odds-on favorite for the Ballon d’Or has scored in each of the last 2 games, even though Real Madrid marked the first time he was in the Starting XI at this tournament.

Chelsea FIFA Club World Cup Recap

Chelsea will be the underdogs this Sunday, but Enzo Maresca’s squad has played extremely well at this tournament. The English side won their opening game against LAFC 2-0 before falling to Flamengo 3-1 in the following contest. However, they dismantled ES Tunis 3-0 in the final group-stage game and secured the #2 spot in Group D. This turned out to be a blessing in disguise because they avoided the side of the bracket with PSG, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Additionally, Manchester City and Inter Milan were eliminated in the Round of 16, leaving Chelsea as the only remaining European squad on their side of the bracket.

The Blues needed extra time to beat Benfica in the Round of 16, but they scored 3 goals in extra time to secure a 4-1 victory. Then, they eliminated Palmeiras 2-1 in the quarterfinals before recording a 2-0 victory over Fluminense in the semifinals. Their defense hasn’t been as tight as PSG’s (3 goals allowed), but they’ve found the back of the net 14 times, and Pedro Neto leads the team with 3 goals to his name. Newly signed striker João Pedro made his mark in the semifinals by scoring 2 wonderful goals, and there are eight other Chelsea players with 1 goal. They’ll need a team effort if they want any chance of defeating the European Champions.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea Prediction

Sunday’s game will be quite the treat based on both teams’ current form, but it’s hard to deny that PSG has taken out much tougher opponents to get here. Bayern was the only club that tested them in the knockout stage, but they still only managed to produce 0.60 xG. I anticipate that Chelsea will take a conservative approach in this game, and their defense will have to be at their best to keep this PSG squad from scoring. Because of this strategy, I expect the Blues will limit the Parisians’ scoring opportunities.

With Dembélé back in the lineup, attacking chances should be more evenly distributed across their front 3. Therefore, I expect to see a slight drop in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s total shots. The Georgian is constantly a threat in front of the goal, as he’s recorded 3 or more shots in 5 of PSG’s 6 games at the FIFA CWC. However, it’s atypical for him to record more than 3 shots consistently. He’s recorded 3 shots or fewer in 9 of PSG’s last 13 games, and in the only games where he recorded 4 shots or more, they scored at least 3 goals or lost. I expect this game to be a low-scoring contest, which is why I’ll back Kvaratskhelia to record fewer than 4 shots against Chelsea.

Our Pick: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Record Fewer Than 3.5 Shots