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The second match of this week’s Champions League Semifinals finds Paris Saint-Germain at the home field of Parc des Princes to take on Arsenal. Only one team can make it through to the finals, and PSG leads 1-0 on aggregate. Can Arsenal turn it around, or will PSG hold the lead till the end of 90’?
Catch the game later today at 3 PM ET, but not before reviewing my picks to decide if it’s something you want to fade or follow!
The French side already claimed the Ligue 1 trophy with six games to spare on April 6. Their most recent match in their domestic league against Strasbourg ended in a 2-1 loss, starting with an own goal from PSG’s Lucas Hernandez, followed by a first-half added time goal by Felix Lemarechal in the 45+3’. PSG rested most of their main personnel, including Dembele, Donnaruma, Marquinhos, Vitinha, Hakimi, Mendes, Kvaratskhelia and the like, with only Bradley Barcola scoring a consolation goal to make it 2-1 by the end of the game. This will hardly affect PSG going into today’s Champions League match, as more than half the squad sees an entire week’s rest.
Last week’s first leg UCL match against Arsenal was even throughout most of the game, with PSG hitting 11 shots (4 on target) versus Arsenal’s 10 shots (5 on target). The French side did, however, edge the Gunners on possession with 53% and accumulated 438 passes. The difference in this one was Ousmane Dembele scoring in the 4’, allowing his side to hold the 1-0 scoreline away until the end of the match. Now, they head to home territory where they should keep the slight advantage. With a week’s rest for many of their starters, the team will focus on attacking Arsenal’s flanks with their pace, allowing Dembele space in the middle to score yet another important 1+ goals to move through to the Champions League Final.
Arsenal look to hold on to second place in the English Premier League with 67 points, as Liverpool has already claimed the title this year, and Manchester City is just 3 points behind the Gunners. Arsenal’s most recent game was rough, ending in a 1-2 loss to Bournemouth with only Declan Rice scoring for the team in the 34’. Arsenal did have most of their starters playing, and while this game had much less weight than today’s Champions League match against PSG, the Gunners still want to get as many points as possible in the Premier League. Despite the Gunners outshooting and outpossessing Bournemouth, their opponents would still take the narrow 2-1 win.
The Gunners have had a most impressive Champions League campaign, especially after dousing reigning champions Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate in the quarterfinals, yet PSG is a whole other ball game. Unless Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Declan Rice, and teammates dig deep in this one, PSG will most likely hold a scoreline and possession advantage all game, with the threat of adding another insurance goal to the tally. While this matchup slightly favors PSG, anything positive that happens to the Gunners could get the momentum rolling.
Paris Saint-Germain takes the home field advantage and a 1-0 aggregate lead, which will force Arsenal to play higher up the field as they’ll need to score at least 1 to stay in it. While both sides are coming into this one-off loss in their domestic league, PSG will have a completely fresh squad ready to play, while Arsenal may show some tired legs near the middle of the second half and will need to make crucial substitutions to maintain the same level of energy.
All signs point towards PSG in this one, as they have a fitter squad with a 1-0 lead, and a home field advantage, and we expect star-player Ousmane Dembele to add to PSG’s aggregate with another 1+ goal(s) today.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.