French Open Picks – Men’s Final: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

Sunday marks the finale of the 2025 French Open, as the No. 1 Jannik Sinner will go head-to-head with No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. Sinner aims to be the first Italian since 1976 (Adriano Panatta) to win at Roland Garros, while Alcaraz tries to win back-to-back French Opens for the first time since his fellow Spaniard, Rafael Nadal, won four straight titles from 2017-2020. While the Spanish have owned this tournament in recent years, Sinner is on a mission to change that.

Let’s get into my French Open picks in what should be a tantalizing match between two young tennis stars.

Carlos Alcaraz 2025 French Open Recap

Alcaraz has played well at the 2025 French Open and is coming off a win at the Italian Open against Sinner. The Spaniard started the tournament by defeating Giulio Zeppieri in straight sets before dispatching Fábián Marozsán and Damir Džumhur 3-1 in both matches. His first true test came against American Ben Shelton, as Alcaraz needed the tiebreaker to win the first set, but he eventually prevailed, winning 3-1 again. In the quarterfinals, he dominated Tommy Paul 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 before taking down Lorenzo Musetti, who retired in the fourth set.

The 22-year-old has impressed at the French Open, and it’s hard to see how he’ll be knocked off his perch. Since losing in the Barcelona Open Final to Holger Rune, he has won 11 straight matches, securing 30 out of 35 sets, showing how dominant he’s been. Sinner will obviously be another test, but Alcaraz defeated him 7-6 (7-5), 6-1 in the Italian Open Final, and there’s no reason why he can’t do more of the same in Paris.

Jannik Sinner 2025 French Open Recap

Like Alcaraz, Sinner has played extremely well at Roland Garros. The Italian had to serve a three-month ban after winning the Australian Open earlier this year, and the Italian Open in May marked his first tournament back. Although he fell to Alcaraz in the final, it was a strong showing from Sinner, and Sunday’s final feels like the perfect revenge spot for the Italian. He’s certainly shown no signs of slowing down, and we should be in for a great match.

Sinner reached the final by first defeating Arthur Rinderknech and Richard Gasquet in straight sets. This turned out to be a trend for the No. 1 seed, as he proceeded to knock out Jiří Lehečka, Andrey Rublev, Alexander Bublik and Novak Djokovic 3-0. He’s yet to lose a set at Paris, and Djokovic is the only player who’s even pushed him to a tiebreak. Alcaraz just defeated Sinner last month in Rome, but the Italian looks like a different player and appears to be back at the top of his game.

Men’s French Open Final Picks and Predictions

This match feels like picking between an unstoppable force and an unmovable object. While Alcaraz has dominated on clay throughout his career, Sinner is back to looking like his best. The Italian hasn’t dropped a set at this tournament, and there is a revenge factor tied to this matchup after Alcaraz took him down last month in Rome. If Sinner can break the Spaniard’s serve early in the match, he could gain a mental edge, which could be the difference, as this match will be decided by inches. 

Overall, I expect Sinner to make things difficult for Alcaraz on his serve, but the Spaniard should be able to push back on allowing 1st serve points. When these two met in Italy, Alcaraz won 35/48 (73%) of 1st serve points, and when they faced off in the 2024 French Open Semifinal, he collected 61/97 (63%) of 1st serve victories. Expect a % somewhere between 63% and 73% on Sunday. I also think this game should go the full five sets, giving Alcaraz approximately 20-25 games to serve in or around 90-100 serves. Scoring on 65% of his serves would put him at 52 1st serve points won, which I’m more than happy to back. 

Our Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Record 52+ 1st Serve Points Won