Wimbledon Picks: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova – Women’s Semifinals

The All England Club takes center stage Thursday, July 10, for a compelling women’s semifinal showdown at Wimbledon 2025 between two powerful, baseline-hugging competitors: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and resurgent American No. 13 Amanda Anisimova. Sabalenka arrives at Centre Court on the heels of coming up short in the previous two Grand Slam finals, and chasing her first Wimbledon final appearance. Anisimova, meanwhile, is looking to break through to her first-ever Grand Slam final after years of promise.

This is the ninth meeting between the two, and while Sabalenka holds the current momentum, having won three of their last four encounters, Anisimova owns the head-to-head edge at 5–3. This will be their first career meeting on grass, and it comes with the highest stakes yet.

Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Recap

Entering the tournament as the last American woman left in the draw, the 23-year-old Anisimova has methodically navigated her section of the bracket.

In her quarterfinal matchup against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Anisimova looked poised to cruise. She dominated the first set 6–1, consistently dictating rallies and striking clean winners from each end of the baseline. In the second set, she built a 5–2 lead and had multiple match points, but the nerves seemed to catch up with her. Pavlyuchenkova rallied, forcing a tiebreak, and suddenly the pressure mounted. But Anisimova held her nerve when it mattered most, edging a marathon breaker 11–9 to punch her ticket to the semifinals.

That match mirrored her Round of 32 and Round of 16 performance in some ways, where she had won the first set convincingly, only to drop the second before rallying in the third. Despite some lapses, Anisimova has displayed a reliable ability to regain control, and her big serve and flat groundstrokes have looked particularly sharp on grass. With 11 wins in her last 13 grass matches, she enters Thursday’s semifinal with the utmost confidence.

Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Recap

For Aryna Sabalenka, 2025 has already featured a trio of impressive titles (Brisbane, Miami and Madrid) but also two frustrating finishes on the biggest stages: runner-up showings at both the Australian and French Open. In both cases, she was stopped by American women, Madison Keys and Coco Gauff. Now, another American threatens to deny her a shot at Grand Slam glory.

Sabalenka stormed through her first four Wimbledon rounds without dropping a set, looking every bit the top seed. But in the quarterfinals against German veteran Laura Siegemund, things got dicey. The 37-year-old German sliced and diced her way to a shocking first-set win, frustrating Sabalenka and exposing her discomfort with off-pace tennis. The second and third sets remained tense, but the Belarusian ultimately prevailed, 4–6, 6–2, 6–4, using raw power and emotion to claw her way back.

That three-set battle may serve as a blessing in disguise. Sabalenka showed she can recover from adversity, a quality she’s leaned on during her rise to the top. She’s now into her third Wimbledon semifinal (2021, 2023 and 2025), matching her best performance at the All England Club. While she’s yet to lift the trophy here, she’s undoubtedly familiar with the moment, and she is eager to capitalize.

Anisimova vs Sabalenka Wimbledon Semifinal Prediction

From a matchup standpoint, this semifinal offers a fascinating contrast to Sabalenka’s last opponent. While Siegemund chopped and slowed the pace, Anisimova will bring powerful, flat groundstrokes that rush opponents and take time away. That dynamic could suit Sabalenka, who prefers rhythm and pace. However, grass levels the playing field, and Anisimova’s ability to redirect power and strike clean winners off shorter balls could spell trouble for the No. 1 seed.

While Sabalenka won their most recent clash at Roland Garros in straight sets, Anisimova has claimed five career victories over her, including Grand Slam wins at the 2019 French Open and at the Australian Open. Their Slam head-to-head is split 2–2, and both are 5’11” right-handers with booming serves and fearless ground games.

There’s also a growing trend in Anisimova’s matches: fast starts, second-set hiccups and third-set rebounds. That pattern makes this one feel destined to go three sets. Sabalenka will likely apply scoreboard pressure early if she finds her first serve, but if Anisimova can grab the opener and settle into her rhythm, she could exploit Sabalenka’s tendency to overhit in tight moments.

Ultimately, Sabalenka’s experience in big Slam moments makes her dangerous, but Anisimova is thriving on grass and seems ready to take the next step. It may come down to whether Sabalenka controls her power and holds her nerve in the key moments. 

Our Pick: Amanda Anisimova to Record 66+ Total Points

Given her recent form, confidence on grass and deep head-to-head familiarity with Sabalenka, I like Amanda Anisimova to exceed 65.5 total points won in this semifinal clash. With the potential for a long three-set battle and her history of winning first sets and extending matches, Anisimova should have ample opportunity to rack up points if her serve continues clicking and she maintains her sharp ball striking from the baseline.