Wimbledon Picks: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz – Men’s Semifinals

The 2025 Wimbledon men’s semifinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz promises to be a heavyweight grass-court clash between two of the best in the game today. Both players are ranked in the world’s top five, but intriguingly, this will be only their third career meeting, and the first on grass.

Alcaraz, the 22-year-old Spanish sensation and two-time defending Wimbledon champion, has beaten Fritz in straight sets both previous times they’ve faced off, including a clinical performance at the 2023 Miami Open and again at the 2024 Laver Cup. But Friday’s semifinal presents a new surface, a new stage and a new level of momentum from Fritz, who enters his first-ever Wimbledon semifinal after a battle-tested run through a gauntlet of challengers.

Taylor Fritz Wimbledon Recap

Coming off disappointing early exits at both the Australian and French Opens, the American entered the grass court season with something to prove, and he has delivered. Fritz won the Boss Open and the Lexus Eastbourne International, showing world-class composure and booming serve-and-forehand combos that translate beautifully to grass.

Wimbledon, however, hasn’t been easy. Fritz barely survived the opening round against 6’8” French phenom Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, clawing back from two sets down and surviving a fourth-set tiebreak to force and win a fifth. Then came another five-set war against Canadian up-and-comer Gabriel Diallo, followed by a hard-earned four-set victory over #26 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

A fortunate break came in the Round of 16 when Jordan Thompson retired early in the second set after falling behind. That brief match allowed Fritz to recharge ahead of his quarterfinal showdown against #17 Karen Khachanov, where he took the first two sets before Khachanov responded with a dominant 6-1 third. In a tense fourth-set tiebreak, Fritz unloaded four aces to close the door and punch his ticket to his first career Wimbledon semifinal.

Though his serve has carried him far, the American will need every ounce of his physical and mental reserves to upset the defending champ.

Carlos Alcaraz Wimbledon Recap

Carlos Alcaraz has done nothing but reinforce his status as the future (and present) of men’s tennis in 2025. Fresh off his second consecutive French Open title, where he stunned World No. 1 Jannik Sinner after trailing two sets and facing triple match point, Alcaraz rolled into Wimbledon with a full head of steam, winning the HSBC Championships as a grass tune-up.

The Spaniard’s Wimbledon defense began with a surprise five-set test against veteran Fabio Fognini, but he shook off the rust and has been steady since. He dropped sets to both Jan-Lennard Struff and #14 Andrey Rublev in Rounds 3 and 4 but raised his level in the quarters, blitzing Britain’s own Cam Norrie in just 90 minutes. That dominant three-set win has Alcaraz rested, confident and ready for another push toward his third straight Wimbledon crown.

With an all-surface game, electric footwork and a magician’s touch with the racquet, Alcaraz is uniquely suited to dissect big servers on grass. He’ll now look to do exactly that against Fritz.

Fritz vs Alcaraz Prediction

While Alcaraz enters this semifinal as the favorite and a two-time Wimbledon champion, grass might represent Taylor Fritz’s best chance to finally get one over on the Spaniard. The Californian’s powerful serve and flat groundstrokes play perfectly on these quick surfaces, and if he serves as well as he did in the first two sets and the fourth-set tiebreak against Khachanov, he could trouble Alcaraz early.

That said, Fritz will need to win this match in a short number of sets to avoid fading physically. His early-round five-setters added serious mileage, and even with the extra day off before the Friday semifinal, the grind could catch up to him against Alcaraz, who thrives on extending rallies, forcing movement and keeping relentless pressure on return.

Fritz may grab one of the first two sets, but the defending champ is too crafty and too comfortable on grass not to respond. Expect Alcaraz to absorb early pressure, counter with all-court variety and eventually break down Fritz’s game, particularly in longer baseline exchanges where he can use drop shots, off-speed backhands and passing shots to great effect.

I see this as a four-set Alcaraz win that’s tight early, then gradually more controlled as the match unfolds.

Our Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Record 9+ Break Point Opportunities

Even if Fritz serves well, he’s shown stretches in this tournament where his rhythm disappears. Alcaraz is one of the best returners in the game, especially on grass, where he can stand up in the court and punish weaker serves.

Given the expected number of return games and Alcaraz’s relentless pressure, we like him to generate at least 9 break-point opportunities in this semifinal. Whether he converts them all or not, the Spaniard is likely to keep the heat on Fritz’s serve throughout the match.