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Saturday’s main event will be a big one for the UFC, with the most highly anticipated light heavyweight match of the month between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev hitting the octagon at 10 PM ET. Catch the high-intensity fight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, but not before reviewing our picks first!
We’ve got the full rundown for Saturday’s bout, so feel free to analyze our prediction and decide whether it’s something you want to fade or follow!
The Brazilian light heavyweight looks to defend his title again from a challenger for the 5th straight fight in a row. Pereira, who boasts a 12-2-0 record, started his career with a debut loss but has fought his way back brilliantly since then with 12 victories and only 1 loss to Israel Adesanya in 2023. In his last five fights since then, Pereira took home his light heavyweight belt and continued to defend his title against the likes of Jiiri Prochazka (twice), Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. most recently.
Out of 12 victories, 10 have been by KO/TKO, where Alex Pereira has showcased 63% striking accuracy, with 50% of his shots going for the head. Pereira is a lethal striker who likes to finish things quickly, with four of his finishes coming in the 1st round, some of them against top global fighters like Sean Strickland and Jamahal Hill.
Another thing is for sure with Pereira, he doesn’t like to draw out fights very long, and even when he can’t conclude it in the first round, he’s only let one of his fights ever go to the full 5 rounds.
The Russian light heavyweight challenger of Magomed Ankalaev will look to dethrone Pereira in this bout, which will be his 22nd overall. With only 1 No-Contest in his career, Ankalaev boasts a 21-1-1 career record, as well as being undefeated since March 17, 2018 (with 1 draw against Jan Blachowicz on Dec 10, 2023). He’s also not shy when it comes to fighting tough opponents, having come across the likes of Antony Smith and Johnny Walker, although Pereira will be one of his toughest tests yet.
Ankalaev showcases 11 of his wins coming from KO/TKO while ending 6 of his fights in the first round. He boasts an 87% takedown defense and rarely allows himself to get grappled to the canvas. Much like Pereira, Ankalaeve likes to fight standing, with 53% overall striking accuracy and 59% of those shots aimed for the head. The main difference for Ankalaev in this one is that while he likes to strike, he also has 32 takedowns attempted compared to Pereira’s 1, so he’s much more likely to try to keep the fight in the element of his choosing.
Pereira is a ruthless fighter with a championship mentality, so for Ankalaev to do any significant damage in this one, it will have to most likely be drawn out to 5 rounds where Ankalaev may be able to find a takedown opening from Pereira’s exhaustion. That said, Alex Pereira has 4” more to his reach, so if he forces the fight to be a striking game, he may be more likely to take home another title defense.
Poatan is slightly more accurate in striking with fewer fights under his belt, so we completely expect Pereira to land more punches throughout the fight. Stamina will be a major factor, and while both fighters can go the distance, Pereira is predicted to use more energy early on. If the fight stays standing, we fully expect Alex Pereira to get the job done with his 4th consecutive light heavyweight title defense, but it may take a few rounds.
Pereira has only had four fights in the UFC last past the second round (Bruno Silva, Israel Adesanya, Jan Błachowicz and Khalil Rountree Jr.). In those bouts, he’s landed 108, 91, 70 and 127 significant strikes for an average of 99 significant strikes per fight. Given that I expect this fight to last at least two rounds, this trend should continue, so I’ll gladly back Poatan to record 70+ significant strikes and could easily see him landing 80+.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.