Loading...
Get ready for another crazy UFC Fight Night featuring hectic South American, European and Asian fighter matchups. It all starts at 9 PM ET at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, so get yourself prepared for three of tonight’s main bouts by reviewing our preview/picks for each fight before deciding if they’re something you want to back or ignore!
Tonight’s South American lightweight bout features Elves Brener (16-5-0) from Brazil taking on Esteban Ribovics (14-2-0) from Argentina for a close matchup in the octagon. These two enter the arena off losses in their most recent fights, and while they stand at the same height of 5’10”, Brener takes a 3.5” reach advantage coming into this one.
Both fighters are known to submit their opponents, but Brener shows more promise with a 69% win-by-submission rate compared to Ribovics’ 36%. The Argentine has won exactly 50% of his bouts by KO/TKO versus Brener’s 19%. Ribovics also takes advantage of significant strikes landed per minute at 8.08 (43%) versus the Brazilian’s 3.99 (47%), and Ribovics will likely connect with at least 82 significant strikes before the night is up.
Brenner will have to lead with takedowns, although he averages just 1.23 per 15 minutes (23%), which will be hard to get past the Argentine’s recorded 63% defense.
This European showdown showcases another lightweight bout between Polish fighter Mateusz Rebecki (20-2-0) and Scottish fighter Chris Duncan (13-2-0). Both fighters enter off fresh wins in their last bouts, with only 2 in total for either side. Chris Duncan, despite having slightly fewer fights under his belt, reps a 5.5” arm reach and 4.5” leg reach advantage in the octagon tonight.
The Scott and Pole have similar win-by stats, with 45% of wins-by KO/TKO going to Rebecki and 54% of wins-by KO/TKO going to Duncan. On top of that, both fighters do submit on occasion, with Rebecki ending 35% of his fights as such versus Duncan’s 23%. Rebecki also leads the way in 4.7 significant strikes landed per minute (48%) versus Duncan’s 4.2 (45%), while both come in at around a 50% standing defense.
Duncan takes the slight takedown advantage, averaging 4.1 per 15 minutes compared to Rebecki’s 3.84. I project Rebecki to connect with at least 43 significant strikers before the end of round 5 in this classic matchup tonight.
For tonight’s main event, we see an Asian-based scrapfight between Japan’s Tatsura Taira (16-1-0) and South Korea’s Hyunsung Park (10-0-0). Taira, facing his first fight since his only loss in his career, now faces undefeated Hyunsung Park after Amir Albazi stepped out of the event. Now, the 5’7” Japanese fighter takes on the 5’7” South Korean fighter with a 4” reach advantage heading into the night.
Taira’s win-by record is balanced with 31% wins by KO/TKO, 44% via submission, and 25% via decision, while his opponent, Park, has earned 40% of his wins by KO/TKO, 50% via submission and just 10% via decision. Since only one of Park’s fights has gone the distance, his average fight length is just 6:19 compared to Taira’s 11:48. The Japanese fighter reps 2.99 significant strikes landed per minute, with the South Korean coming in with 4.27 landed per minute.
Even though the South Korean takes the striking lead by a slight amount, Taira does boast 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes on average against Park’s 1.9 per 15 minutes. Taira can record 2+ takedowns tonight, although it will be tough to get through the Korean’s solid 100% takedown defense.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.