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Tune in this Saturday to another epic round of UFC Fight Night, where several main card events will be as hot as ever! Catch a hectic buildup to the co-main event with a middleweight bout featuring Kelvin Gastelum and Jo Pyfer before the lightweight bout between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober takes to the octagon.
Then, the flyweight main event hits the floor with Brandon Morena taking on Steve Erceg to seal Saturday’s fight night. Feel free to preview our analysis and picks for the top three fights upcoming this Saturday before choosing whether you want to fade or follow!
The first of the three main event fights is a middleweight bout between Americans Kelvin Gastelum and Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer. Gastelum takes to the octagon with a solid 19-9-0 record and is coming off a fresh win against Daniel Rodriguez. Pyfer also won his latest bout, boasting a 13-3-0 overall record in his career. While both fighters represent the same country tonight, Pyfer (6’ 2”) has Gastelum (5’ 9”) completely beat in height and will most likely look to capitalize on 75” reach versus his opponent’s 71.5” reach.
Both fighters are known to absorb hits with an identical 3.48 absorbed per minute, although Gastelum comes into this one weighing 14 extra lbs over Pyfer (185 lbs). As far as strikes landed per minute (3.70+ per minute), significant strike rate (40%+), and defense rating (50%+), both fighters showcase nearly identical statistics, with Gastelum having an entire 12 more bouts under his belt. Both fighters will attempt takedowns since both fighters record approximately 1 takedown per 15 minutes with 40% accuracy, even though they showcase strong takedown defense, with Gatelum at 59% and Pyfer at 50%. Pyfer has 9 wins by knockout out of his 13 wins, with seven of those fights ending in the first round, while Gastelum has just 7 wins by knockout in his 28 fights, so Pyfer has the edge in this one with a win by decision.
Following up the middleweights is the anticipated lightweight bout between Mexican Manuel Torres and American Drew Dober. Torres reps a 15-3-0 record in the UFC, versus Dober’s 27-14-0 experienced record, although both fighters will be coming off fresh defeats in this one. As far as height difference goes, Manuel Torres has the advantage by 2”, standing at 5’ 10” against his 5’ 8” opponent. The American, however, weighs 15 lbs more than his Mexican counterpart yet showcases a reach of just 70”, which is 3.5” shorter than Torres’s reach.
One thing is for sure, which is Manuel Torres’s lethal striking ability, with 7.17 significant strikes landed per minute against Dober’s 4.39, and he has a 55% strike rate. Out of 15 of his victories, 14 were first-round finishes, with seven coming from knockout (seven by submission as well), so Dober will have to have impeccable standing and takedown defense to have the edge in this fight. Attacking Torres will be extremely difficult, as he showcases an 88% takedown defense while absorbing 4.53 punches per minute. While Dober records a 56% takedown defense with 4.25 strikes absorbed per minute and has defensive capabilities, Manuel Torres has a clear offensive advantage, which Dober must overcome if he wants to win this fight. Based on his past fights (and the reach advantage), we expect Torres to end this one with an early knockout.
The main event on UFC Saturday Fight Night’s main card is a flyweight bout between the “Assassin Baby” from Mexico, known as #2 fighter Brandon Moreno, and the #8 fighter Steve “Astroboy” Erceg from Australia. Moreno is an experienced fighter, with an overall record of 22-8-2 in the UFC while coming off a victory in his most recent bout. Erceg, while showcasing an impressive 12-3-0 record, is coming into this one fresh off a loss. Erceg may have a 1” height advantage, but it’s Moreno who will take a 70” reach that outstretches Erceg’s reach by 2”. Moreno also weighs a flat 10 lbs more than his Australian opponent coming into this one.
Surprisingly, while Bradon Moreno showcases just .42 submissions on average per 15 minutes, he’s won 11 fights by submission, with just five coming from knockouts. The Mexican may have eight total first-round finishes against the Australian fighter’s five, but that means nearly half of Erceg’s wins have come in the first round (6 wins by submission and 2 by knockout). Morena (46% takedown accuracy) does have Erceg (26% takedown accuracy) beat in takedown accuracy by 20%, but both fighters showcase a takedown defense of at least 60%, so we may see some heavy striking in this one. Erceg has 4.37 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Moreno’s 3.99. Since both fighters have good takedown defenses but still like to submit their opponents, we think Moreno will come out with a win by decision at the end of this one.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.