Loading...
UFC Fight Night puts on another fantastic fight card featuring a gritty welterweight matchup before hitting the middleweight co-main event leading into the anticipated bantamweight fight between Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo.
Catch the start of the octagon action at 10 PM ET sharp, and feel free to analyze our choices for tonight and decide whether they’re something you want to fade or follow!
Argentine Santiago Ponzinibbio (31-8-0) takes to the arena against American Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0) in one hectic welterweight bout. Both fighters are coming off a win and showcase similar sizing, with the American standing just 1” taller with 1” extra reach.
While Ponzinibbio has 16 more UFC fights under his belt compared to Rodriguez, both fighters boast similar win-by KO/TKO (~50%), submission (~20%), and decision (~30%), with average fight times close to 11 min 30 seconds a piece. For significant strikes, Rodriguez lands 7.5 per minute (49%) compared to Ponzinibbio’s 4.8 (41%), with the ability to absorb more per minute at 5.47 versus the Argentines’ 4.61 per minute. Santiago Ponzinibbio does, however, post higher significant strike defense (61%), with better takedown defense at 71%. Neither fighter likes to go for takedowns; both average 0.55 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. From these stats alone, you may fancy Rodriguez, considering the significant strike advantage. Considering the Argentine has much more experience and slightly higher defense ratings, I predict he will edge the win by decision.
Following the welterweight bout is a middleweight matchup between Dutchman Reinier de Ridder (19-2-0) and American Bo Nickal (7-0-0). Both fighters enter the arena off fresh wins, and the American has yet to face defeat after seven fights. However, the Dutchman stands 3” taller than his American counterpart at 6’ 4”, weighs 10 lbs heavier and has a 2” arm reach advantage heading into this one.
Both fighters fancy wins by submission, with Reinier de Ridder winning 68% of his fights this way versus Bo Nickal’s 57% win-by-submission rate. Bo Nickal does have a slightly higher win by KO/TKO rate at 29%, and his average fight time (4 minutes and 51 seconds) is much shorter than de Ridder’s (7 minutes and 38 seconds), although neither fighter likes to let their fight reach the 10+ minute mark. When we look at significant strikes, de Ridder lands 3.28 (57%) per minute against Bo Nickal’s 2.65 (63%), while the Dutch fighter has absorbed nearly double the number of significant strikes per minute at 2.69 compared to the American. That said, Nickal reps a 64% significant strike defense, but after seven fights showcases a polarizing 0% takedown defense compared to de Ridder’s 100% takedown defense. Reinier de Ridder may boast 6.89 takedowns per 15 minutes on average, but it’s Bo Nickal who showcases 3.61 submissions per 15 minutes on average. Therefore, I predict a win by submission from him in this one to continue his undefeated streak.
For tonight’s main bantamweight event, we find #4 American fighter Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) against #5 Brazilian fighter Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4-1), with both fighters hitting the octagon off recent losses. While the American stands a whopping 6” taller than his Brazilian opponent, he weighs 14.5 lbs lighter with just a 2” reach advantage. Both fighters are incredibly experienced in the UFC, so this should be one for the books.
Both fighters have a variety of finishes, from striking to submissions, and while Sandhagen takes advantage of winning by KO/TKO (41%), Figueiredo has the edge when it comes to winning by submission (38%). Sandhagen’s fights reach an average length of around 14 minutes and 23 seconds, leading 41% of his victories to come by decision, while Figueiredo reps an average fight length of 12 minutes and 50 seconds with a 25% win rate by decision. Both fighters showcase close significant striking stats, with the American landing 5.02 per minute (44%) versus the Brazilian’s 2.91 landed per minute (54%), and both absorb approximately 3.50 significant strikes per minute. When it comes to grappling, Figueiredo may have more wins by submission and 1.62 average takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.43 submissions on average per 15 minutes, but Sandhagen boasts a slightly higher takedown defense (63%) than his opponent (60%). Considering the American’s massive height, reach advantage and higher defensive ratings, I predict a win-by decision from him tonight.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.