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Tonight blasts off with a rockin’ set of UFC fights, including a hectic lightweight bout before moving on to a highly anticipated co-main lightweight event. Rounding up the rear is the long-awaited welterweight showdown between Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales as the main event.
The fighting starts at 7 PM ET, but don’t forget to analyze our picks for the big fights before deciding whether they’re something you want to back or ignore!
Nigerian fighter Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) stands in the octagon against Brazilian opponent Mairon Santos (16-1-0) in one of the most evenly matched lightweight bouts in recent weeks. Yusuff is coming into this one off a loss, while Santos is fresh off a win, and the Brazilian reps a 1” reach and 2” height advantage over his opponent while Yusuff weighs in at 7 lbs heavier.
Both fighters have nearly identical win-by stats, with Yusuff winning exactly half his fights from KO/TKO and the other half from decision, compared to Santos, who has won 53% by KO/TKO and 47% by decision. Their average fight times come close to 10:50, so it’s possible this one won’t go the distance.
Yusuff boasts a slight advantage in significant strikes, with 5.66 landed per minute (49%) compared to the Brazilian’s 4.14 (45%). The Nigerian can absorb 4.51 strikes per minute versus Santos’s 2.37. He also showcases a 70% defense, slightly higher than Yusuff’s 53%. Neither fighters prefer submitting their opponents; Yusuff posts a 62% takedown defense, so all things considered, including the height, reach and significant strike advantage, I expect him to pull out the win via decision in this one.
Brazilian Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) takes to the octagon to face off against Scottish Paul Craigh (17-9-1) in a bloody light heavyweight bout. While both fighters stand at 6’ 3”, the Scottishman weighs nearly 16 lbs heavier than his opponent, although Bellato does have a 1.5” reach advantage despite the height similarities. Bellato’s last fight was the only draw of his career, while Paul Craig suffered from his 9th career loss in his most recent fight.
Bellato showcases a much different fighting style than Craig, winning 58% of his fights by KO/TKO against Craig’s 24%, yet the Scottishman boasts a 76% win by submission rate against the Brazilians’ 33%. Considering Craig’s grapple-style fighting, Bellato takes the advantage in significant strikes, landing a whopping 6.28 per minute (62%) versus Craig’s 2.52 (44%). He can absorb punches too, taking 6.31 per minute with a 46% standing defense, while the Scottian absorbs just 3.03 per minute. The stats show Craig repping a 1.52 takedown average per 15 minutes (20% accuracy) with a 1.42 submission average per 15 minutes, yet Rodolfo Bellato comes in with an impressive 100% takedown defense, making this fight a perfect matchup for the two fighters. Since Bellato shows dominance in the striking game and dabbling in takedowns with strong defense, I expect him to win by KO/TKO in this one.
We have #8 Brazilian fighter Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) taking on #2 undefeated Ecuadorian Michael Morales (17-0-0) for tonight’s highly anticipated main welterweight event. Burns will have to turn his efforts around since his last fight ended in a decision loss to Sean Brady, where he now finds himself against a tough, undefeated Morales fresh off a win. Not only does Morales stand 2” taller than his Brazilian opponent, but he reps a whopping 8” arm reach in this one, which has proved deadly against his former opponents even at the same height of 6’.
Burns shows balance in his results while Morales likes to finish his opponents standing with a 71% win by KO/TKO rate and 24% by decision. Out of Morales’s 17 wins, 12 have come by knockout, with 8 ending in the first round, proving his striking technique to be lethal. Morales landed 5.42 significant strikes per minute (48%) versus Burns’ 3.17 (48%), and both fighters absorb close to 3.50 significant strikes per minute at a 52% standing defensive rate. Burns will likely go for takedown attempts, averaging 2.1 per 15 minutes (37%), and while he boasts a 53% takedown defense, Morales will be hard to get to the canvas with a 92% takedown defense. All signs point towards another victory for Morales in this one, and we expect it to be by knockout before the end of 5 rounds.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.