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Tune into tonight’s frenzying fight card with featherweight and light heavyweight bouts leading into the main event of Ian Machado Garry versus Carlos Prates in one of this year’s most highly anticipated welterweight bouts!
It all starts at 9 PM ET on ESPN+, so don’t forget to analyze our picks below before deciding whether you want to fade or follow!
Georgian fighter Giga Chikadze (15-4-0) takes to the octagon tonight against Ugandan David Onama (13-2-0) for a hectic featherweight showdown. The Georgian comes off a fresh loss in this one, while Onama won in his most recent bout. While Chikadze stands just 1” taller than his Ugandan counterpart, both weight, arm, and leg reaches are nearly the same, making this one a balanced fight in terms of both fighters’ stature.
Both fighters showcase the majority of wins by KO/TKO, with Giga Chikadze taking a slight edge (60% of victories coming from KO/TKO compared to David Onama’s 54%). Onama has a 31% win by submission, compared to Chikadze’s 33%, and with both fighters spanning their fights to an average length of 11+ minutes, this one should be interesting.
While Onama wins nearly a third of his fights by submission, he only attempts .73 takedowns on average with 20% accuracy. However, this likely won’t work against the Georgian, boasting a 70% takedown defense. Onama lands approximately 5.6 strikes per minute versus Chikadze’s 3.92, and while Chikadze showcases 61% defense compared to Onama’s 52%, Onama absorbs slightly more significant strikes per minute at 5.07 compared to Chikadze’s 61%. I expect this one will come down to David Onama landing more significant strikes per minute to take the win by decision.
Following up the Chikadze vs Onama fight is an experience-riddled light heavyweight bout between American fighter Anthony Smith (38-21-0) and Chinese fighter Zhang Mingyang (18-6-0). Smith is coming off a loss in his most recent bout, while Mingyang is entering the octagon off a fresh win. Smith will take a slight 2” height and 0.5” reach advantage, in addition to being much more experienced with 59 fights under his belt, although Mingyang weighs in at 2 lbs heavier than the American.
Smith boasts a 50% win by KO/TKO compared to Mingyangs 67%, with both fighters submitting their opponents at 39% and 33% respectively. Mingyang has yet to win by decision, as he finishes his fights on average after just 2 minutes and 41 seconds with 5.59 knockdowns per 15 minutes. This fight could prove difficult for Smith, as the Chinese fighter reps an incredible 8.57 significant strikes per minute (55%) while absorbing 5.59 per minute, compared to the American’s 3.2 significant strikes landed per minute (46%) absorbing 4.88 per minute.
Mingyang has no grappling stats as he finishes fights so quickly while standing, and although Smith has a 50% takedown defense, it’s likely Zhang Mingyang will finish him with a standing KO/TKO victory.
We have Irish fighter Ian Machado Garry (15-1-0) taking on the experienced Brazilian fighter Carlos Prates (21-6-0) for the highly anticipated main welterweight event. The Irishman heads to the octagon after his first loss in his career against Rakhmonov via decision, while Prates is coming off a fresh win. Garry is 2 inches taller and weighs 2.6 lbs more, although Prates takes a 3.5 reach advantage.
While Ian Machado Garry is the small favorite in this bout, Carlos Prates has shown 76% of his wins by KO/TKO with an average fight time of 6 minutes and 47 seconds, compared to Garry’s 47% wins by KO/TKO and average fight length of 13 minutes and 35 seconds. The Irishman has won 47% of his 16 fights by decision, boasting 4.72 significant strikes landed per minute (54%) over the Brazilian’s 4.39 landed per minute (57%). However, Prates can absorb more strikes per minute at 4.6 compared to Garry’s 2.82. Both fighters have a solid standing defense of around 50%, although Carlos Prates has a 91% takedown defense compared to Ian Machado Garry’s 73%.
While Prates looks promising in a striking matchup, Garry’s only loss came from a decision, so it’s likely this one will end with a decision victory favoring the Irishman after 5 rounds if he can dish out enough significant strikes.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.