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Get ready for another set of bouts in the octagon tomorrow night with several highly anticipated fights in the welterweight and light heavyweight divisions. This weekend’s main card showcases a boatload of spectacular matchups, ending with the main event of Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady.
After analyzing our picks for the top 3 fights this Saturday, decide whether it’s something you’re willing to back or ignore!
To start the first of the final three bouts on the main card is a welterweight showdown between Iceland’s 19-5-1 Gunnar Nelson and USA’s 26-13-0 1NC Kevin Holland. Holland, while boasting 7 more wins throughout his career, is coming off a fresh loss to Reinier de Ridder. Nelson, on the other hand, will be riding high and looking to extend his current win streak to 3 in a row. Holland towers over Nelson by a whopping 4”, giving him an 81” reach compared to Nelson’s 72”. Nelson, however, matches Holland with leg reach, which is an area he could capitalize on if striking with fists fails to make much contact with Holland.
While Holland has nearly half as many takedowns attempted per 15 minutes and nearly 20% less takedown accuracy, he has Nelson’s 1.84 significant strikes landed per minute beat at 4.22 per minute, although the Icelander has a 61% significant strike rate. Nelson is a fighter who likes to finish his opponents quickly, with 12 of his 19 wins coming in the first round. Kevin Holland is nearly the same, with 13 of his 26 wins coming in the first round, and compared to his opponent’s 4 wins by knockout, Holland has him beaten with 14 KO/TKO wins in his career. Given Holland’s greater fighting experience and 9” reach advantage, we predict the Americans will win by decision in this one.
After the Nelson vs Holland is a welterweight matchup between #3 fighter Jan Blachowicz and #6 ranked Carloas Ulberg. Polish fighter Jan Blachowicz comes into this one with a hefty 29-10-1 record and a loss in his most recent bout, compared to his New Zealand opponent Carlos Ulberg, with a clean 12-1-0 record and a win in his last fight. Blachowicz stands at 6’ 2” compared to Ulberg’s towering 6′ 4” height, but Blachowicz has his reach beat by an entire inch despite the 2” height deficit.
Both fighters showcase nearly 50% significant strike rates, with Carlos Ulberg having a slight edge in strikes landed per minute at 7.2 compared to the Pole’s 3.41. While Blachowicz and Ulberg share an average of around 1 takedown attempted per 15 minutes, both showcase incredible defense at 68% and 83%, so this fight will most likely continue with feet planted on the canvas. Blachowicz has plenty of bouts under his belt, but even with that, Carlos Ulberg has everything to prove and will look to make his 8th consecutive win in this one.
For the final main card event, we have an incredible welterweight bout between #1 fighter Leon Edwards from Jamaica and #5 Sean Brady from the United States. The English-Jamaican is anything but a newcomer to the sport with an impressive career record of 22-4-0 1NC compared to Brady’s 17-1-0. He is, however, coming off a fresh loss against Belal Muhammad. Brady only suffered his first career loss in October of 2022 following a 15-fight win streak, and since that loss, he has won 2 bouts to get back on track.
Edwards will look to take advantage of his height and 2” reach advantage, although Brady is known to throw many significant strikes, with a total of 4.09 landed per minute at a rate of 55% of his punches thrown. Both fighters boast similar takedown defense and punches absorbed per minute, but Sean Brady will most likely attempt to take Edwards down, considering he has 3.49 takedowns averaged per 15 minutes compared to the Jamaicans 1.25. His fights do like to go the distance, with only 3 of the 17 victories concluding in the 1st round, and 5 of those victories were by submission. Edwards fights at a similar pace, with just 5 first-round finishes, although the majority of his finishes (when not by decision) are from KO/TKO.
Overall, we think Sean Brady may get 1+ takedowns on Edwards for the win by either decision or submission by the end of 5 rounds.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.