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Tonight, two title fights hit the canvas for an entertaining set of bouts, starting with a competitive flyweight bout between top-ranked fighters. Next, we head into a hectic flyweight title bout before jumping into tonight’s main lightweight title fight between Topuria and Oliveira!
Get ready to witness some epic do-or-die combat starting at 10 PM ET, but only after looking at our picks and deciding whether they’re something you want to fade or follow.
#1 ranked flyweight fighter American Brandon Royval (17-7-0) takes on #12 Joshua Van (14-2-0) from Myanmar, with both fighters heading to the ring after victories in their last appearances. Royval has a 4” height advantage at 5’9”, 3” arm and 3.5” leg reach against his Myanmar counterpart, giving him the slightest of edges as they take to the canvas tonight.
Royval heads into this matchup with a 24% win-by KO/TKO, 53% win-by submission and 24% win-by submission, while Van has won 50% of his fights by KO/TKO, 14% by submission and 36% by decision. Royval fancies submitting his opponents, but Joshua Van lands an incredible 8.2 significant strikes per minute (54%) compared to the Americans’ 4.46 per minute (39%). While Van boasts a higher striking defense at 59% versus Royval’s 47%, Royval has the edge in grappling stats, showcasing lethal takedowns with 0.75 per 15 minutes at 75% accuracy. That said, Van boasts an 81% takedown defense, so with these factors in mind, it could be hard for Royval to submit Van if he floats around the canvas, giving Van the win-by decision by the end of the fight.
Next up is the first of two title fights, where we find flyweight titleholder Brazilian Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) taking on the #4 ranked challenger from New Zealand, Kai Kara-France (25-11-0, 1 NC), with both fighters entering this bout off fresh wins. While Pantoja stands just 1” taller than the New Zealander at 5’ 5”, Kara-France boasts a 2” arm reach, which should make things interesting in this showdown.
Pantoja reps a balanced win-by ratio, with 28% of his 34 fights won by KO/TKO, 38% by submission and 34% by decision. Kara–France, on the other hand, boasts a 48% win-by KO/TKO, 12% win-by submission, and 40% win-by decision. When it comes to significant strikes, both fighters showcase around 4.50 significant strikes per minute and absorb close to 3.7 significant strikes per minute. However, Pantoja takes the edge on accuracy, and Kara-France takes the edge on striking defense.
The Brazilian boasts more takedowns per 15 minutes than his opponent at .2.74 (47% accuracy), giving him a slight edge in this matchup, but the New Zealander is known to have a solid takedown defense of 88%. This one will be close, but Alexandre Pantoja will come out with the win by decision.
Fighting for the vacant UFC lightweight Championship title tonight is Georgian Illia Topuria (16-0-0), who vacated his featherweight title to move up to the lightweight division to challenge #2 Brazilian fighter Charles Oliveira (35-10-0, 1NC) tonight. Topuria’s last fight earned him the featherweight title from Max Holloway, while Oliveira finished his latest fight with a victory over Michael Chandler. Oliveira has a total height advantage, standing 3” taller at 5’ 10”, with a 5” arm and 4” leg reach over Topuria.
The Georgian has yet to be defeated, winning 38% of his fights by KO/TKO, 50% by submission and 13% by decision. Additionally, Oliveira reps 29% of his wins by KO/TKO, 60% by submission and 11% by decision, meaning this matchup will likely be a grapplefest. In his 16 fights, Topuria showcases 4.69 significant strikes landed per minute (47%) versus Oliveira’s 3.4 per minute (55%), with both fighters absorbing around 3.50 significant stickers per minute.
For grappling, Oliveira has more takedowns averaged per 15 minutes at 2.25, but the Georgian boasts a 61% takedown accuracy with a whopping 92% takedown defense. Considering Topuria’s current championship reign and incredible grappling ability, takedown defense, and striking ability to match, we think he’ll take the win by submission in this matchup to take hold of the UFC lightweight title belt.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.