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Tonight’s UFC 318 features part 3 of the legendary main event of Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier. Prepare yourself for some do-or-die combat in Smoothie King Center, New Orleans tonight, with the action taking to the arena at 10 PM ET.
Check out my picks for 3 of tonight’s main card fights before deciding whether they’re something you want to fade or follow!
One of tonight’s main card events features a welterweight showdown between #13 American fighter Kevin Holland (28-13-0, 1NC) and American opponent Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0). Both fighters enter this one-off recent victories, but it’s Kevin Holland, standing 2” taller than his opponent at 6’ 3”, that takes a massive 7” arm reach advantage tonight.
Both fighters boast similar win-by stats, with Kevin Holland achieving 50% by KO/TKO, compared to Rodriguez’s 47%. While Holland has won 32% by submission and 18% by decision, Rodriguez has won 21% by submission and 32% by decision. Daniel Rodriguez showcases 7.39 significant strikes per minute (48%), although I think with Kevin Holland landing 4.24 per minute (50%), he’ll achieve over 46.5 significant strikes tonight.
Both fighters do go for takedowns on occasion, with Holland averaging 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes (39%) compared to Rodriguez’s 0.55 per 15 minutes (54%), but both fighters showcase higher than 55% defense, so this one will likely stay a standing match.
Up next features a competitive middleweight matchup between #13 Brazilian fighter Paulo Costa (14-4-0) and #14 Russian fighter Roman Kopylov (14-3-0). A matchup doesn’t get much closer than this, although while Costa stands 1” taller at 6’ 1” and comes off a recent loss in his last fight, Kopylov boasts a 3” reach advantage and enters the octagon fresh off a win, making for an interesting showdown for this bout.
Not only do both fighters rep a similar fight record, but they both rep approximately 85% win-by KO/TKO, meaning this fight is likely to be a striking bloodbath. The Brazilian takes a slight advantage in dishing out more significant strikers, landing 6.22 per minute (585) compared to the Russian’s 4.96 (50%). Costa also has more strikes absorbed per minute at 6.56 (49% defense) versus Kopylov’s 4.86 (55% defense), leading me to predict Kopylov will record fewer than 70.5 significant strikes tonight.
However, Kopylov may go for at least 1 takedown tonight, as his stats show 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes (42% accuracy), but most of the fight will likely stay with feet planted on the canvas.
This weekend’s most highly anticipated matchup features current lightweight titleholder American Max Holloway (26-8-0) taking on the #6 American challenger, Dustin Poirier (30-9-0, 1NC). Holloway stands 2” taller than his American counterpart at 5’ 11”, although it’s Poirier who takes the 3” arm reach advantage. Both fighters enter the octagon tonight with the hopes of turning it around after defeats in their most recent matchups.
Both fights showcase similar win-by-KO/TKO rates, with Holloway at 48% and Poirier at 53%, but Poirier boasts more wins by submission at 23% compared to Holloway’s 8%, where Holloway has taken 44% of his fights by decision. Holloway does land more significant strikes per minute at 7.16 (47%) versus Poirier’s 5.3 (50%), and I expect him to land more than 132.5 significant strikes tonight.
While both represent a similar defense, absorbing approximately 4.5 strikes per minute at around 55% defense, Poirier attempts more takedowns, averaging 1.24 per 15 minutes with an average of 1.28 submissions per 15 minutes. All things considered, this one will be one of the closest fights of the year.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.