Loading...
There’s a whole variety of main card matchups tonight as we head into UFC Fight Night featuring Derrick Lewis and Tallison Teixeira. First, we find a gritty featherweight bout between two Americans, followed by a highly anticipated welterweight bout, and then the final heavyweight fight of the night between Lewis and Teixeira.
Catch the action starting at 9 PM ET, but only after reviewing my picks to decide whether they’re something you want to back or ignore.
The first of the three main card events features a featherweight matchup between two Americans, #14 Calvin Kattar (23-9-0) and Steve Garcia (17-5-0). Kattar comes off a loss in his last fight, while Garcia is riding high off a fresh win. While both fighters are similar in height (Garcia with a 1” advantage at 6 feet), Garcia takes a 3” reach advantage heading into this one.
Overall, Garcia dominates his wins by 82% KO/TKO, with 18% by decision, leading his fights to average just 5:08 in length. In contrast, Kattar has only 48% wins by KO/TKO, 8% by submission, and 43% by decision. Garcia showcases 5.04 significant strikes landed per minute (56%) versus his opponents’ 4.6 (38%). However, Kattar absorbs a whopping 6.62 significant strikes per minute with a 53% defense.
Kattar may have won a sliver of his fights by submission, but Garcia dominates the grappling category with 40% accuracy (versus Kattar’s 29%) and 88% defense (versus Kattar’s 77%). Considering Garcia’s reach advantage and shortened average fight length, I predict him to take the win by KO/TKO before the end of 5 rounds tonight.
Up next is a welterweight bout featuring #12 American fighter Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) versus Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim (17-1-0). The American enters the arena after one of his eight losses, while the Brazilian makes his way off a fresh victory. Despite Bonfim being favored in this matchup, standing 1” taller than his opponent at 6’1”, Thompson boasts a 2.5” arm and 1.5” leg reach advantage in this one.
Two different style fighters meet in the octagon, with 47% of Thompson’s fights won by KO/TKO, while only 18% of Bonfim’s fights have been won in this manner. Bonfim, however, takes the massive advantage in grappling, winning 76% of his fights by submission compared to the American’s mere 6%. Bonfim’s average fight time lasts around 6:48 for just 6% wins by decision, while Thompson has 47% of his wins by decision.
Both fighters recorded impressive significant striking stats, with Thompson landing around 4.11 per minute (46%) and Bonfim landing 5.22 per minute (43%). When it comes to grappling, though, Bonfim averages an impressive 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes (76% accuracy) with a 73% defense, while his opponent averages just 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes (41% accuracy). Considering Bonfim reaches 2.21 submissions on average per 15 minutes, I’m taking him to win this one by submission before the end of the fight.
For tonight’s main event, we witness #9 American Derrick Lewis (28-12-0, 1 NC) taking the octagon against #13 undefeated Brazilian Tallison Teixeira (8-0-0), making for an epic heavyweight bout to seal the night. Both fighters hit the arena off fresh wins, but it’s Teixeira who stands 4” taller than his opponent at 6’7”, taking a 4″ arm reach advantage as we head into this matchup.
This makes for some great action, as both fighters boast over 82% win by KO/TKO statistics, meaning Lewis has won 22 fights by knockout, and Teixeira’s average fight length over 8 fights is as short as 1:16, with the biggest difference here being the Brazilian knockdowns his opponent almost 12 times per 15 minutes. While Teixeira has no real grappling stats whatsoever, his significant strikes are overwhelming, as he averages 14.61 per minute (59%), absorbing 7.5 per minute (59% defense), compared to Lewis’s 2.48 landed per minute (50%) with 2.48 absorbed per minute (40% defense).
The American does have adequate takedown defense (52%), although that may hardly matter in this matchup, leading me to take the dominant striker Teixeira to win by KO/TKO before the final bell rings in this one.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.